RTWAP:
There are some basic principles that seem to be shared by good organizations. Don't rush the prospect. Don't stall the prospect without ice time or opportunity. Don't let the prospect stay in a poor development environment.
It is difficult to know how these basic principles will be applied because any decisions the Senators make are going to be based on information and judgments that we're not privy to. But it might be helpful to identify some of those underlying factors.
Is Erik developing properly in the SEL? This is mainly a question about ice time, opportunity to play in the right situations, physical training, confidence building and fundamental approach to the game. If I had to guess, I'd say that Frolunda is doing fine in this regard.
Could Erik handle a jump directly this summer to the NHL? Are his skills sufficiently developed? Has his defensive game matured enough that he won't get buried as a PP specialist with little ES opportunity? Has his strength improved enough? Can he handle the transition to NA rink size and game style?
Does Erik want to come to the NHL next season? This one is hard to say. I think he's expressed a preference for playing a couple years in the SEL, but that was last fall. And he may just have been careful. It could be embarrassing if he publicly set a goal of making the NHL next season and then wasn't even invited over. Much better to state publicly that he'll stay in the SEL until he's ready and then wait for the team to ask him to come over. It's also a better mental approach. Just focus on the team he's on and the games in front of him, not the larger goal. I think that unless the Senators make a strong pitch to bring him over this summer, he will be happy to spend another season with Frolunda. Another factor is that he would probably prefer to avoid a full season in the AHL. If playing his 20th year in the SEL instead of the AHL, provides almost the same benefit and he spends most of his next season as an NHLer then there wouldn't be much benefit to spending a season on the buses with Binghamton.
Will the Senators have room? Pierre McGuire stated on the Team1200 on March 5th that the team is not done with their defense and will continue to make changes this summer. As it currently stands, there are 3 young defensemen with offensive skill in Campoli, Lee, and Picard, with Kuba providing veteran presence. Given that management has identified all of these players as bona fide NHLers, and the fact that the team has 3 defensive veteran D-men, it would be hard to imagine the team slotting Karlsson into the lineup as a #8, or even a #7 defenseman. But if the team is able to sign or acquire a true #1 then players like Smith and Volchenkov might leave to free up salary. Given a situation like that, Karlsson could find himself sharing #6/#7 duties with Alex Picard.
SensGuy:
Is it possible to withhold my decision until after the off-season? Because to me, the only thing holding Karlsson back from playing in the NHL is his size. If he's able to put on a decent amount of weight this summer, then I believe he could play at the NHL level. Would that be the best thing for his development? Who knows, but I think he has the skills and confidence to play in the NHL, but he doesn't have the size. I don't think he'll be getting any bigger playing in Sweden and against Swedish players, so if he puts on some muscle this summer, I have no issue bringing him over.
That leads to the question, do we even have room for him? Murray is going to have to get rid of some dead weight this summer, mainly in Smith, Schubert and possibly Picard, otherwise Karlsson won't get the playing time he needs.
Emo:
I'm a firm believer in putting players in a position to succeed, a position where their skills are maximized. Ottawa should give him every opportunity to excel next season in training camp. Play him in situations you want him to dominate years form now. Play him with high-level talent. If he blows you away, keep him and keep pushing him and teaching him all the while putting him in the best position to succeed.
I don't expect him to blow us away and earn a spot next year, but I think handling him how I suggested will be the most beneficial. This is the first elite-talent we've had in a while and I hope we maximize it. Put him in a real position to succeed and when he likely does not make the team, he should have a clear idea of what's expected of him and how to get there.
How he'll handle physical play at his current size is a legit concern. If we don't want him in the NHL next season due to size, do we really want him in the AHL which is rougher and more physical league than the NHL? I'd rather he not go through another season in Sweden where he's the sixth or seventh d-man, but if he's going to get primo minutes in that league, then I think it's probably the best place for him. I would hope that the Sens will tailor a plan for him to gain size; one that he can stick to while playing so far away from Ottawa.
DaveMatthew:
If he comes to the rookie and regular camps and proceeds to wow everyone ala Martin Havlat in 2000, I'd put him on the team.
I wouldn't do it simply because we have a current need in that role. No sense screwing up one of our most promising prospects in years when we have Picard, Smith and M. Karlsson all capable of filling the #6 role. Maybe they won't be as skilled, but E. Karlsson won't make or break this team next year anyways.
A further position, though endorsed by few, considers placing him in the AHL next season, primarily to address his poor strength:
Ricard_Persson:
Clay Aiken is better built than Brian Lee, and Lee takes a beating and gets bounced around this year. Lee is bigger and stronger and quite a few years older than Karlsson.
I would say that Karlsson in the NHL next year is a pipe dream. I can't see him being ready, and think a year in the AHL would do him wonders.
Senfanman88:
Erik Karlsson is in a very unique situation. There's many ways to go with him and they all have their pros and cons.
Letting him stay in the SEL could do a variety of things in itself. He could take over and be a mega-star, build his confidence and refine his skill set. A downside to this is that if he doesn't dominate, or his skill doesn't translate perfectly, his confidence could take a nose dive and the experiment could end before it started. Erik, to me, seems like the kind of guy who knows he is great and if he isn't as great as he feels (relative to NHLers or even SELers) it could be bad.
The AHL is the next idea. This gives him a shot at NHL speed and conditioning (82+ games) and would be great to develop the areas he is lacking in, such as strength and grit. The overall skill in the AHL is close to the SEL but Erik will be adjusting and the confidence factor will be buffered as he shouldn't be expecting to be great in a new league with a new style. An additional upside is the chance to play in the NHL if he's deserving or the big Sens have injuries. The downside is that he gets less money and is far from home, but he'll have to make that change sooner or later.
Straight to the NHL would be trial by fire. I'd be wary to send the Sens best prospect in years straight into the NHL like that, especially if he isn't big enough. This could be the ultimate waste if he gets beat down consistently while seeing minimal ice time. However, with smart coaching and smart utilization (PP and 3rd pairing) he could really shine at the biggest level and that would go very far.
Personally, for the team, the AHL would be best as it combines the best of the SEL and NHL opportunities. I can not blame Erik if he doesn't want to go there as he would get less money and be far from home. I really hope he comes over this summer and trains with guys like Fisher, Bass and/or Neil (if he is here) and bulks up like Zubov did. I hope that in doing this, he'd grow to crave Ottawa and accept the AHL due to the chance to get called up and make his mark.
That being said, a guy like Erik, with his natural talent and strong mental game will succeed regardless, if he wants it. When and how he will succeed depends on how he is handled next season but long term it shouldn't be the deciding factor of his NHL success.
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