A selection of Ottawa Prospector contributors participated in this inaugural roundtable. To participate in future discussions or suggest topics of debate, please visit the Ottawa Senators Forum at Hockey Broads.
The background: Senators 2008 first round draft pick Erik Karlsson has shown plenty of positive signs in the months since his selection, finding a regular role with the Frolunda Indians of the Swedish Elite League and winning top defenseman honours at the 2009 World Juniors. He has a tremendous offensive skillset and a mature understanding of the game which belies his age. Still, his lack of size and strength might remain impediments to quick ascension in the pro ranks. While the Senators have made some moves to address their puck-moving needs on the backend, Karlsson seems an ideal remedy for many of their blueline woes and there are indications the franchise might want to speed his development by bringing him into Ottawa next fall.
The debate: How should the Ottawa Senators handle Erik Karlsson next season and going forward? Allow him become a confident star player in the SEL, gaining valuable experience? Convince him to come to Binghamton to focus mostly on training and conditioning elements? Bring him into Ottawa as a PP specialist, with access to world-class training regimen and mentors? Something else altogether? Consider these questions and more and share your thoughts in a roundtable format.
This part of the roundtable addresses the most popular conclusion, that Karlsson is not yet ready for the NHL and should remain in the SEL for at least one more season. Different conclusions will be broached in ensuing posts.
Joe Sakic:
In my mind the best path for development for Erik is to stay another season in the SEL (assuming he doesn't come in and flat out wow every one next year - like M.E. Vlasic did in SJ).
I see patience as the one common denominator that all strong drafting NHL clubs have, especially those with contributing youngsters. For Erik Karlsson, I think this should be the team’s approach. There's no doubting that from a skills perspective he's got enough to at least be a number 2 in the NHL. For Erik, he really needs to develop that physical strength that any dman needs to be able withstand the rigours of an 82+ game schedule as well as the mental strength that goes along with being a top two guy on any NHL club. Because Murray has done a fairly decent job of building some organizational depth on the backend (adding Kuba, Picard, and Campoli) I think the Sens can afford to be patient with Erik and let him develop that physical and mental strength so that when he dawns a Sens uniform he's really ready to be an impact player.
Giving Erik another year in Frolunda, where he becomes a go to guy on the back end playing key minutes in key situations would absolutely be, in my mind, the right thing to do. This will allow him to get experience being a number one/two type dman on a team where winning is expected, in a city where hockey is king. Couple the added responsibilities on the ice, with a physical regimen that can be tracked and monitored by the big club, Erik can continue to mature physically in a far less physically demanding league (the SEL vs. AHL). By affording him that added year of development, Erik could then come to NA when he's 20 and be in a better position to succeed both physically and mentally because of the added experience - assuming he continues his development path, he'd be that much more confident in himself and his game and be able to translate that confidence into results. I'd then let him ply his trade in Bingo for a year (again assuming the club feels he's not there yet), where he'd be introduced to NA style hockey on a smaller ice surface. In Bingo, I'd have him on the ice on the PP, SH and in all key ES situations so that he can continue to learn and grow and adapt his game to fit the NA style. This would also give him another year to physically get stronger preparing him for the NHL. If it's obvious that he's too advanced for the A I'd bring him up BUT not before at the very least the All Star break.
Erik's a great talent and I think if the organization can be patient with him and not rush him, he'll definitely be a difference maker for this team for years to come.
sensdiehard:
I hope we don’t rush him. He stills looks young. As Jacques Martin might say, a boy still, not quite ready for a man’s league. When he is clearly ready to take a lead role on this team, he should come over.
As Holland was quoted to suggest recently, and as the old Montreal dynasty teams used to always live by, prospects develop as long as they need in the minors and don’t come up until they are ready. That has been the hallmark of excellent organizations in the past. Hopefully we have the luxury of doing it properly too.
zamboner:
In ideal conditions, Karlsson would get another year with Frolunda, but with twice as much ice-time. He started the year strongly, wowing us with his game against the Senators in the pre-season. Following that, he was hot and cold with Frolunda, and was prone to bad defensive play. A huge WJC helped put any fears to rest, but Karlsson remains low on the club team's depth list.
Karlsson has the skill, but lacks the strength and size to step onto an NHL rink. He'd probably be a Brendan Bell right now. Think about it, Bell would have been the MVP of the WJC had he been there. I don't know why people think Karlsson would step in and immediately be a real player in the NHL.
However, the situation the Senators find themselves in is NOT ideal. They're in desperate need of a play-maker on the back-end, as the defensive corps is skilled, but lacks any kind of offensive creativity. Karlsson has a mind unlike any other defensemen within the Senators organization, and Murray will likely find that mere fact very appealing. He's got to find a way to improve the blue-line without trading away any more forward depth.
So, he should play another year in the SEL (or AHL, but I doubt it), but will likely be given a big chance to make the team next year.
Pothier:
The best thing for Karlsson's develop at this point, is to let him have one more year with Frolunda. Let him dominate the SEL, while getting bigger and stronger, taking on a larger role on the team, and maybe even working on becoming a better all around defenseman.
Keeping him with Frolunda pretty much guarantees that Karlsson will be playing, and most likely being the captain for the 2010 Sweden WJC team that will take to the ice in December. He had an outstanding tournament this year, so it's scary to think that he could do it all over again, with the chance of being even more dominant this time around, and maybe even win the Gold with Team Sweden.
The Ottawa Senators already have 8 defensemen under contract for next season; this really does not leave any room for Karlsson, especially since 2005 draft selection Brian Lee, another offensive defenseman, is still waiting for a real shot, so one would assume next year is Lee's shot. I don't feel Erik would benefit from being a 7th defenseman/PP specialist as much as he would from another year overseas.
In conclusion, I really feel Erik would truly benefit from another year in the SEL with the Indians, and another World Junior Championship. One would assume that with only 2 defensemen under contract for the 2010/11 season, this will be Karlsson's time to shine in a Senators uniform.
mayoradamwest:
Karlsson looks like he's going to be something special. It'd be nice if we could get him over for the preseason, camp and such but I'd be really hesitant to play him next year. There's no reason to rush the development of what could be the best prospect the organization has produced in years. Unfortunately, we need to have some patience with him. We could just get Mattias Karlsson to change his name to Eric to energize and confuse the fan base. Unless E. Karlsson adds serious muscle in the offseason I can't see how he'd be a better option than what we have already. Even if he is better overall (or is going to be) than most of our D corps, he doesn't need to be thrown into a team with a ton of question marks, especially considering the fan expectations that would be heaped on him by the intellectually stimulating Ottawa sports media. Give him another year, let him play out his time in Sweden, and then bring him over when he's ready to contribute immediately.If Karlsson comes over he could be a PP specialist over here but he wouldn't be able to play a full game and may find it more difficult to round out aspects of his game. If Karlsson stays and commits to his Swedish team, Frolunda, he will get the highest amount of minutes he needs to ply his trade and learn the game. Of course Ottawa's lack lustre back end seems to suggest that we should rush him over and get any help we can use back there.
There is also a third option of signing Karlsson to a contract over here getting him into some game time and then loaning him back to Frolunda if or when it doesn't work out. This has been met with some success in some other Swedish prospects in the game today as well, and is something that Karlsson is willing to entertain. I think when all is said and done I would let Karlsson play another year in Sweden. It will allow him to mature his game, keeps a good working relationship with a Swedish team that could be valuable in the future, and to me seems like the best option. We shouldn't allow our impatience to rush him into the game and possible harm his development.
sensens:
I'm not surprised most of the comments have been fairly consistent, as I don't think it's much of a debate - it makes absolutely no sense to jeopardize the development of the team's most important prospect in years. Even if he was rushed, it would be borderline delusional for the team to assume that his immediate impact would necessarily exceed what is already provided by Picard, Lee, and Campoli. If the team is in such a dire spot that this move is considered its best option, I think that would be the final indication that far more serious moves are immediately necessary.
discostu:
I think the decision on Karlsson is pretty simple and straightforward. He's obviously a very talented young defenceman, with a great head for the game. But, he is undersized, and, needs to get bigger before he should be here. Another year in the SEL seems like a no-brainer. He needs time to put on some size, and, to adapt to playing with that size. He could theoretically bulk up this summer, but, then, he'd be adapting to a new country and new league, while he's also adapting his game that goes with that added size.
Let him grow in the SEL for at least another year. He'll get the ice time opportunities there. Have Sens trainers track his progress, and see where he is a year from now.
Hossa:
Personally I am not satisfied in the least that Erik Karlsson is ready for the NHL next year, nor do I believe that at this point in time it's in his or the team's best interest to force the issue. The reasons for this are numerous, and some have been outlined by others.
For one, with several third pairing blueliners under contract heading in to camp, I do not feel desperate to play Karlsson next year. Brian Lee, Chris Campoli and Alexandre Picard are all young, looking to establish themselves, and have varying degrees of offensive upside. Moreover, they are important assets for the club, whether because they were a high draft pick (Lee) or the key component in a trade that saw a major asset go the other way (Picard and Campoli). It's important for the organization to gain a better perspective of what these players are capable of in the immediate future and whether or not they should be in the long-term plans of the club alongside Karlsson. The fact that all three are restricted free agents in the summer of 2010 only adds to the necessity of answering those questions next year. At that point Bryan Murray and company will be in a position to evaluate which, if any, of those blueliners are part of the solution, and the contracts will be structured as such. It's important to stagger contracts and receive contributions from young players in a proper manner.
I am also not entirely sure if I see a fit for somebody to play with Karlsson next year. Although I see the value in putting Karlsson with a veteran like Jason Smith, my biggest hesitation is that they are both right-handed shots. With some players that would not be a big deal, but Jason Smith's already porous puck-handling is only worse in the rare opportunity that he has to move the puck from his wrong side. The other option would be for Karlsson to play on his opposite side, but that is not ideal for a young blueliner, particularly one whose game is predicated on handling the puck and jumping in from the back-end. If we do decide that Jason Smith's hefty contract is worth retaining for another season, then I believe he should be utilized to complement Picard or Campoli, both left-handed shots with offensive ability but significant room for improvement defensively. In short, there are circumstantial reasons to hold off on putting Karlsson in to the line-up.
Even if the Senators' blueline was shaping up differently, I would not be convinced that Karlsson is ready for the NHL quite yet. It is well established that he will never be a big player, and his lower body is not built in a manner which leaves him much room for growth in the strength department. He will never be built like a fire hydrant, propelled by two tree trunks for legs, like several players below 6'0" such as Brian Rafalski or Martin St. Louis. What Karlsson will do is use his sense of timing, intelligence and awareness to play defensively, but he has not consistently been able to do so this year in the Swedish Elite League. He is far too important to this organization to rush his development and rob him of the necessary time to develop as a complete player. Playing in the SEL for another full season would allow him the opportunity to play against men and professionals, and grow to be a complete player at that level. Inevitably he will need some time to adjust at the NHL level, but that does not in any way mean his development needs to be so heavily dependent on playing against the best players in the world in Ottawa.
What I would do though is try hard to get Karlsson signed as soon as possible. Ideally I would bring him over for rookie camp and training camp, on the agreement that he will return to his club team in Sweden for the balance of the season. What this would allow the Senators is a modicum of control over his season though, because this plan only has merit if Karlsson's season in Sweden goes as planned. In order to develop in that league, he needs consistent ice time and a good situation, and with a contract signed, Ottawa would have a role to play should things go awry. On the chance that his season does not go as well as hoped, that would leave the Senators with options in terms of changing course.
This is what the Flames were able to do by sending Mikael Backlund to the Kelowna Rockets of the WHL in the middle of this year. After an impressive turn at the World Junior Championships, the Flames decided that they were not satisfied with his development in Sweden. Instead, they gave Backlund one game in the NHL and then reassigned him to a good Kelowna team for the balance of the season, where he has put up a point per game and played alongside other top prospects like Jamie Benn, Colin Long and Tyler Myers. Obviously it remains to be seen how well this works out for Backlund in the end, but the important thing for Calgary was that those first two seasons after a player is drafted are incomparably important for a player's development. Ensuring that Karlsson's season next year does not veer off track is essential, and should be the top priority at this point in time.
No comments:
Post a Comment