Friday, March 6, 2009

Roundtable #1 - Erik Karlsson in 2009-10, Part III

A final argument regarding Erik Karlsson is mostly made by Devil's advocates. Most do not believe Karlsson should be rushed into the NHL, but here are the arguments presented in favour of such a development:

Gord Langton:
With the state of the D can we afford to not have Karlsson here next year?

Yeah, he's a little undersized but his game is NHL caliber. He's a better passer than any of our current players and unless Murray manages to hit a home run with a UFA, we're going to need somebody like Karlsson to intelligently run the powerplay.
Kuba is alright, but his routine is pretty predictable. If you ever want to try a drinking game on the Sens PP then take a shot every time Kuba does the return pass maneuver. (Please don't actually try this if you want to make it through a 60 minute game. It'd be like trying to drink to swearing in Deadwood.)

Picard seems every bit the 7th dman and though he should get better in the offseason (should being the main word there) he's not the solution on the powerplay, or the breakout and let's be honest with outselves; if he was a star we would get so sick of the Jean-Luc jokes that we'd boo him out of town fast. Actually it's Ottawa, they might like the fact they get the joke. Hmm.... I'll leave that one up to the philosophers.

Campoli looks like he's going to to be a decent player for us, but he's a future number 3 guy at best. Unless he improves a massive amount over the summer, I could still see Karlsson being the better player.

Bell.... I'm just kidding.

Other than that with Jason Smith, Phillips and A-train our D isn't exactly fear inducing. A lot of teams left out points open this season because they knew they couldn't do anything with it but shoot it into some pads, high and wide, or pass it around the perimeter. We have nobody in the system who can make teams respect our D offensively the way Karlsson should be able to.

This is the "new" NHL remember. Look around the league at the players that are cracking lineups and making a major impact. With the clutching and grabbing gone and an emphasis on skill, young players can thrive right off the bat. Sure some struggles are to be expected, but with a guy this talented how can you not put him in the lineup? It's Murray's job to ice the best roster possible and if he's going to leave the best player off the roster well then I'm afraid he's simply missing the boat.

Doughty in LA showed that a young defender can step in and in my opinon Karlsson is already better than him. Pair E-Karl up with Volchenkov or Smith so they can deliver some pain if anybody takes liberties on him.

Yeah, Karlsson is going to be a bit small still but if he works hard this offseason there is nothing stopping him from making major steps forward in his game. Watching him in the World Jr's, he certainly didn't shy away from contact and even had a bit of a nasty streak. With some muscle backing him up what's preventing him from playing in the NHL? He's got the skills, the attitude, and a name that makes you think of the Simpsons. Hopefully Murray will draft a Leonard as his partner this year.

The UFA crop is weak, we don't have anyone else to do it... Karlsson simply has to be an option if he performs well in camp. He said he wanted to play 2 more years in the SEL at the draft but I would bet dollars to doughnuts that if it came down to it.... If Karlsson had a slot on this team shown to him by Murray and a contract on the table, I'd think the bigger stage and the bigger dollars might change his mind quickly. Besides, he was probably just trying to be cautious. He seems like a competitive SOB and why wouldn't he want to play at the highest level? If he has the ability and I think he does, it would be a disservice to Sens fans everywhere to let this guy rot in Sweden. He's a cost effective, talented solution. Guys like him are the key to success as we've seen this year what not having enough talent coming up can do.


I.M. Fletcher:
One reason I think it would be positive to bring him over for next year is if we are paying Smith 2.6mil for leadership, it would seem that would only make sense if he was truly being utilized. Sure he has Picard and Lee to be building into now, but for someone like Karlsson whose game is predicated on confidence, you want to do everything in your power to make sure you have strong leadership guiding that confidence towards the team opposed to himself.

I am not going to begin to assume to know what Karlsson needs, but for someone so confident at such a young age, almost similar to Spezza, I would like to insulate him as much as possible so his decision making is guided through his first few year. Similarly to how Redden had Pitlick as his partner, and we got to see the development of Redden and it actually got alot more out of ol' Lance.

Just a thought. I know there are many reasons to want to protect him from a negative experience, but a year from now, he could be learning defense from Phillips Lee Picard and Campoli. Not thats a negative group, but outside of Phillips, I dont know if young guys can provide the amount of accountability that an older player can.

Maybe I am just trying to justify having Smith being paid so much for another year. If he is helping in proper development of Lee Picard and Karlsson, I think long term his 2 awful contract years would be more than worth it.

Counterpoint to I.M. Fletcher by sensens:
I do agree that having Smith paired with Karlsson would be the way to introduce him to the NHL, but he's still 18 at this point (19 by training camp) and with limited experience in even the SEL I still wonder to what extent that would really be a positive move. Not to mention that it would be difficult enough of a transition to make without simultaneously putting the weight on him to be the team's best offensive defenceman, as some have suggested would make a case for bringing him over. And if he were paired with Smith, that would mean 3rd line minutes, which isn't exactly condusive to fulfilling a role as the team's top puck mover.

And this is really my criticism - it's one thing if Karlsson had blown away the SEL, came over at camp and impressed, and was a bonus to next year's roster - but to depend on that for the success of your season is pretty poor management. And what this team would need to improve on a scenario of Phillips, Volchenkov, Kuba, Campoli, Smith, Lee, and Picard, is not a 19yo prospect who finished tied for 6th on his team in defenceman scoring. Even a relatively successful year for Karlsson as a 19yo would be considered a failure by that requirement, which is patently unfair to him as a developing prospect.

For my money, that defence is just fine - particularly because the team is poised to take advantage of inexpensive contracts for all of Campoli, Lee, and Picard - precisely the players that Karlsson would be able to compensate for in a year or two when they are no longer as easily retainable. The far more pressing concern for me is the secondary scoring up front, which is now as depleted as it's ever been. Even if Comrie re-signed at $3M/yr, the team would be pushed almost to the cap limit to just achieve that, which I would argue is a recipe for another underwhelming season. I suppose you could argue that rushing Karlsson could make one of those defencemen expendable and used as currency to find an inexpensive young forward to flank the offense, but I just think that Karlsson potentially represents a substantial part of the team's future. Playing games with his development is just not the way I would go.



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