Saturday, February 28, 2009

Scouting Report: Brian Elliott

by Peter Drake (with contributions from Amanda Murray)





2008-09 Binghamton Senators AHL 30GP 18W 2.31GAA 0.926sv% 2SO
2008-09 Ottawa Senators NHL 17GP 7W 2.84GAA 0.905sv%


Following a terrific first half of the season with the Ottawa Senators' AHL affiliate in Binghamton, Brian Elliott was recalled to the NHL in mid-January in attempt to kick-start a struggling hockey team. While Senators General Manager Bryan Murray alluded to plans for such a mid-season call-up on multiple occasions since the off-season, it was the young netminder's strong AHL play which made such a call up inevitable. Elliott won December Player of the Month honours, placed among the AHL's best goaltenders in every statistical category, and even earned a starting slot on the AHL All-Star team. Seventeen games into Brian Elliott's first extended stretch at the NHL level, it seems a reasonable time to evaluate his play up to this point, which has so far been a mixed blessing.

As with many good prospects, he excelled at the start and was the team's best player on some nights. He quickly gained the confidence and respect of his teammates. This was especially noticeable during new coach Cory Clouston's transition to an aggressive game, as there were more than a few instances where mistakes by forwards and defensemen lead to scoring chances that Elliott handled calmly and proficiently. While the Senators recent stretch of comparatively competent play has been most often attributed to Clouston's influence, the boost is similarly attributable to the arrival of Elliott.

Through this stretch his mental game and technical skills seemed up to the challenge. He has proven himself to be a mature, confident player who welcomes a challenge. He shows intense motivation and demands perfection of his own performance, and even after poor outings he relishes the opportunity to get back in the net. Primarily, he knows his weaknesses and works tirelessly to improve upon them. Prominent areas for improvement are rebound control, consistency, and anticipation, but the latter comes with learning the shooters at the NHL level. Given Elliott's reputation for focus and preparation, both of those issues should see improvement over time.

More recently, Elliott has given up a significant number of goals early in games, to the point where he has been replaced by the coach three times, in outings against Washington, Minnesota and Montreal. Although each goal in isolation has appeared to be justifiable, and mostly due to poor team play in front of him, the coach has challenged Elliott to keep his team in the game as they weather some rough early patches. The technical faults, if any, have been minor. A slight hesitancy here or there, failure to challenge a shooter as much as he could, losing a shooter in traffic, perhaps a failure to anticipate a shot.

If there has been a moderate drop in performance it is hard to assign it to any one cause. Could it be fatigue near the end of a long season with lots of difficult AHL travel, topped off by a Senators road trip that was brutal by NHL standards? Could it be a loss of mental focus now that the initial rush of games is past? Or is it primarily attributable to poor team play in front of him?

If Elliott had to be graded on his NHL performance so far this season, he would earn a solid B. He demonstrated poise and talent, and a few rough edges. How Elliott addresses those areas for improvement will be critical to his next year or two with the Senators. At this point Elliott has demonstrated enough to pencil him in as an NHL backup, with NHL starter upside. Just exactly how high that upside goes is unknown, but the Senators would probably count themselves lucky if they could get proficient, reliable goaltending of a 10th-15th ranked goalie, considering Elliott was drafted 291st out of 292 in the 2003 NHL Entry Draft. Most people agree that Elliott is the most promising goaltending prospect ever drafted by the Ottawa Senators, but on a list that includes Ray Emery and not much else, this isn't much of a flattering consideration. Still, he has excelled at the NCAA and AHL level despite odds against him, and while his starts in both leagues were slow, he graduated both ranks as a star at each level. His NHL development has been on track with educated expectations.

Looking ahead, the Senators have a few decisions to make. Do they keep Elliott up with the NHL club and see how he works through the challenge immediately in front of him, or do they send him back to Binghamton in hopes of a long and successful AHL playoff run?

The Senators also need to sign Elliott to a new contract over the summer. He will be a Restricted Free Agent, without arbitration rights, which means he could be the target of an offer sheet from another team. That gives the Senators an incentive to sign him relatively quickly. Elliott might reasonably expect to sign a one or two year deal in the range of $900,000 to $1.3 million. Based on the scarcity of significant or desirable goalie upgrades this summer, the Senators may decide to start next season with a tandem of Alex Auld and Elliott, a situation that provides an interesting mix of challenge and opportunity for both goaltenders.

The key point is that Elliott's future is entirely in his hands. The Senators would love nothing more than to see him step up and take the reigns of an organization in dire need of a consistent force between the pipes, and will give him every opportunity to succeed. If Elliott shows the determination and commitment to betterment espoused by his play at other levels, he will be a valuable asset to the Ottawa Senators franchise.

Monday, February 9, 2009

Top 20 Senators Prospects (Mid-season Ranking)

by Sean Keogh (with additional content as noted)
All statistics as of February 9th, 2009.
All height/weight data courtesy of hockeydb.


1. Erik Karlsson

Senators Player Page
Frölunda Indians Player Page
HockeyDB Player Page

Defense - Landsbro, Sweden - 5'11", 165 lbs - DOB 1990
Drafted 1st round, 15th overall 2008

2008-09 Frolunda SEL 37GP 2G 4A 6P 10PIM

Karlsson is the top Senators prospect because he is the only player on this list who is anywhere near a stud. Although consistent success in the Swedish Elite League has eluded him, in the past 9 months Karlsson has been the top defenseman at both the U18s and U20s, which is no small feat. His overall offensive skills are outstanding. Although not a burner, he is a good all-round skater; his passing is perhaps the best in the organization already; and he has a great shot including a promising one-timer. Despite needing more time to mature physically, he could probably quarterback an NHL powerplay very soon, if not now. Lower body strength is a major weakness for now, and he does not have a build that suggests it will ever be an asset, but at almost 6’0” now his height is not a huge drawback. What he lacks in strength he makes up for in outstanding hockey sense, including great timing and body control that allows him to play physical hockey and even throw open ice hits. The only other aspect of Karlsson’s game that needs work is simplification. Whether it’s breaking out of his zone or walking the line on the powerplay, Karlsson needs to find a better balance between creativity and safety. With his hockey sense and natural gifts though, that should come with time so long as he remains coachable and his moxie does not turn into stubbornness.

Other Comments: (Prospect Ranking)
SensGuy: (1) Has the ability to be a tremendous PP QB. I don't know if he'll ever be a top flight overall defenseman, but I'm very happy the Sens went with pure talent on this one. Unlike others, I wouldn't mind seeing him come to North America, even if it's a sheltered role in the NHL, because the biggest thing holding him back is his strength, which won't improve a lot in Sweden. Good comparison might be Brian Campbell.
Zamboner: (1) Top-paring D-man and PP QB - Great vision and poise with the puck. Elite passing and shot. Can take too many risks, and needs to be better when defending. Also needs to bulk up considerably. Will probably spend one more year with Frolunda in the SEL, where he will hopefully get more ice-time. Expect to see Karlsson in Ottawa in 2010-2011, unless they convince him to play in the AHL or he blows us away next training camp.
armani: (1)
Indrew: (1) Projects to be comparable to Ozolinsh in the 90's
Krazy Tea: (1) Has proven he can dominate at the junior level on the world stage, needs to take the next step and prove that he can play with men. Still a couple years away from being able to be a solid contributor at the NHL level IMO, hurrying him to the NHL based on need would be detrimental to his development. Has the ability to be a #2 top pairing offensive contributor and should lock in as second pairing PP offensive stud at worst. Despite his size he eats up a ton of minutes on the PP/PK and even strength.
Theo Huxtable: (1) Karlsson was very impressive at the World Juniors for Sweden, having been selected as the best defenseman in the tournament. Karlsson is a very offensive-minded d-man - very adept at the first pass out of the zone and joining the rush. He has a hard and fairly accurate shot, and runs a power play with ease. Karlsson obviously has to bulk up to be able to graduate to the NHL level - he must also improve his awareness in his own end. Karlsson seemed to get beat to the outside fairly often during the WJC's. I fear that because of the Sens' lack of offensive defensemen, he may be rushed to the NHL next season.
moz: (1) The others have said it all, I will only add that he shows extreme self-assurance and is more than comfortable in the spotlight. He is lucid and eloquent in conversation with the media and shows a mature understanding of the game that belies his age. While he clearly needs physical development to compliment his tremendous skill, there is no question that his high hockey IQ and maturity will play an integral role in fashioning him into a dependable star player and leader not unlike his fellow countryman Daniel Alfredsson.


2. Brian Lee

Brian Lee

Senators Player Page
HockeyDB Player Page

Defense - Moorhead, MN - 6'3", 203 lbs - DOB 1987
Drafted 1st round, 9th overall 2005

2008-09 Binghamton Senators AHL 22GP 1G 7A 8P 28PIM
2008-09 Ottawa Senators NHL 27GP 1G 5A 6P 8PIM

Few prospects in Senators history have been as much maligned as Lee. The pale and soft-spoken blueliner has had an up and down career since the club used the 9th overall pick on him in 2005. Inconsistency plagued him at the University of North Dakota, and his early season struggles this year were cause for concern. Of late he is back on track and is hopefully in the NHL to stay. Lee has some things in common with Karlsson, in that he has good hockey sense and some nice offensive abilities. Although nowhere near as flashy or dynamic as Karlsson, Lee has good all-round mobility and moves the puck very effectively. His shot has improved, as has his strength, although he neither looks nor plays like a 6’3” NHL blueliner. There is some disagreement on his ceiling, as it is not as high as Karlsson’s, but he has all the tools to at least be a reliable top four rearguard, and soon.

Other Comments: (Prospect Ranking)
SensGuy: (2) Obviously I'm higher on him than others, but he can be a really good overall defender once he fills out completely. While he may not be great at anything, he's really good at most, and his hockey sense is through the roof. He's still a project, and we won't be seeing a finished product for at least a few more years. A good comparison might be Teppo Numminen, as I have a feeling he'll never get the respect he deserves.
Zamboner: (NR) Deemed to have graduated from prospect rank.
armani: (2)
Indrew: (2) Projects to be comparable to Redden
Krazy Tea: (2) Up and down year hurt his rankings, has showed flashes of brilliance but needs to show it with some consistency. I don't really believe he can be an elite top pairing guy, but again a decent 3/4 stud. He will eat up a ton of minutes, not sure if he can translate his offensive game to the NHL as well. But he is playing a more consistent defensive game since his second call up and there is still room for development at his age.
Theo Huxtable: (2) I think Lee will turn out to be a solid NHL defenseman, but not spectacular. He'll probably max out as a 3/4 d-man at the NHL level. He skates well, is a very good passer, plays the game intelligently, but has two glaring weaknesses - his shot is well below average (perhaps even poor), and he doesn't play a very physical brand of hockey. I think Lee will turn out to be a solid but unspectacular pro.
moz: (2) The mention of Wade Redden leaves a bad taste in the mouths of many Senators fans, and any favourable comparison to him is tainted by Redden's poor final years in Ottawa. But Lee projects as the Redden who provided a decade of solid, well-rounded if not astronomical play. Perhaps another fair comparison would be a slightly more involved Filip Kuba, only with a physical edge. He can quietly play in all situations and shock you when he leads the team in ice time. Lee isn't flashy and has no outstanding attributes, but he will be a perfect compliment to Karlsson. In his brief time in the NHL, he has shown himself capable of shutting down skilled players, while it will take some more physical maturing to contain grinders or power forwards.


3. Brian Elliott

Brian Elliott

Senators Player Page
HockeyDB Player Page

Goaltender - Newmarket, ON - 6'2", 198 lbs - DOB 1985
Drafted 9th round, 291st overall 2003

2008-09 Binghamton Senators AHL 30GP 18W 2.31GAA 0.926sv% 2SO
2008-09 Ottawa Senators NHL 11GP 5W 2.47GAA 0.912sv%
If Lee’s upside is a bit hard to peg, it would be foolish to concretely do the same for this overachiever. Elliott’s story is already well established, going from the 291st selection in 2003 to goalie of the future in Ottawa, and the more success he has at the NHL level, the closer to folk tale it will become. A big, intelligent and hard-working goaltender with an exemplary mental make-up, Elliott has conquered every challenge he has faced so far, rising to the top of the ranks in both the NCAA and AHL. Although he is not an elite athlete and needs to work on his rebound control and consistency, he has not stopped improving since being drafted, so predicting what kind of NHL career he will have is at present hard to do.

Other Comments: (Prospect Ranking)
SensGuy: (3) Self made, and I see him becoming a real solid #1 goaltender in this league. He made it this far on hard work, and will continue to stick because of that. Big, athletic, and willing to tweak his game to compete at any level. Has the mental game that you crave in a goaltender, and even in his short NHL stint, has shown an ability to make big saves for his team. Comparable to Ryan Miller.
Zamboner: (2) Starting goaltender - Impeccable work ethic and attitude. Is a student of the game, and therefore technically great. Could work on lateral movement and rebounds. With the Sens' lack of anything at the goalie position, he's likely an NHLer from here on out.
armani: (3)
Indrew: (3) Projects to be comparable to fellow U of W alum Mike Richter... maybe
Krazy Tea: (3) Not really sure yet what kind of goaltender he can be at the NHL, if he develops as he has previously through the NCAA and AHL then he could be a quality starter in the NHL.
Theo Huxtable: (3)
moz: (3) The others have said it all. A trifecta of necessities for goaltending excellence - technical and athletic abilities, a high level of competitiveness and a commitment to betterment. He has excelled at every level of competition despite fierce odds and low expectations. While it is unfair to bill him the future of the franchise, the Senators will give him every opportunity to fulfill just that role.


4. Ilya Zubov

Ilya Zubov

Senators Player Page
HockeyDB Player Page

Forward - Chelyabinsk, Russia - 6'0", 201 lbs - DOB 1987
Drafted 4th round, 98th overall 2005

2008-09 Binghamton Senators AHL 36GP 12G 25A 37P 18PIM
2008-09 Ottawa Senators NHL 10GP 0G 2A 2P 0PIM

Few organizations would say that a former fourth round pick is not only their best forward prospect but in terms of upside arguably the best to come along in half a decade. Zubov is however a legitimate scoring line prospect on a team that has failed to produce one in too long. The Russian’s second AHL season has been his breakout, resulting in multiple call-ups to Ottawa. An all-round offensive winger with good skating ability, it is improved off-ice dedication and on-ice all-round play that has cemented his status as a key prospect for Ottawa.

Other Comments: (Prospect Ranking)
SensGuy: (4) Perhaps the most talented forward prospect the Senators have had in years. Needs to be more assertive next time he comes up to the NHL, but has the talent and looks committed to staying in North America. Another off-season in Ottawa and he should get a good look next year, if not later this season. A good comparison might be Slava Kozlov.
Zamboner: (3) Top 6 forward - Great offensive awareness, stick-handling, and skating. Plays well defensively, and doesn't shy away from contact. Could probably further improve his conditioning, and be more assertive. Will likely be pushing for a full-time spot on the big club in 2009-2010.
armani: (5)
Indrew: (6) Projects to be comparable to Dvorak
Krazy Tea: (5) Putting up good numbers in the AHL after an off-season dedicated to conditioning. Has not carried his play into Ottawa yet could work on the defensive aspects of the game. Hopefully Clouston can get this Russian to bring it at the NHL level and round out his game. Top 6 all offense.
Theo Huxtable: (6) I think Zubov will either become a 2nd line offensive forward at the NHL level, or not make it to the NHL on a regular basis. Zubov has good speed, good offensive instincts, but lacks size. His AHL numbers are impressive this season - over a point-per-game pace - however, I wasn't overly impressed with his play for the Sens this season. He certainly didn't produce much at the NHL level (2 assists in 10 games), and he looked out of place at times in the defensive zone, unsure of what his assignment was. That being said, if he continues to work hard at the AHL level, hopefully he will be able to become a top 6 forward - the type of player the Sens need desperately to add to their NHL lineup.
moz: (5) He is progressing well and making significant improvements every year. He is a skilled player who can have an impact as a secondary player in the league. While his NHL future is not assured, if he continues along his current path he has a good chance. As others have noted he looked a little tentative in his time in Ottawa, but his skill and hockey sense were apparent on the rush and with a cycle. He doesn't of yet have the defensive ability or imposing physical style to have much of an impact outside the second line, so his offense will need to carry through at the NHL level or he may not find a role.


5. Peter Regin

Peter Regin

Senators Player Page
HockeyDB Player Page

Forward - Herning, Denmark - 6'2", 198 lbs - DOB 1986
Drafted 3rd round, 87th overall 2004

2008-09 Binghamton Senators AHL 36GP 9G 14A 23P 26PIM
2008-09 Ottawa Senators NHL 6GP 1G 0A 1P 0PIM

The Senators have taken players from several unconventional hockey backgrounds. Although Regin was born and raised in Denmark, it was his three years with Timra IK in the Swedish Elite League that made him the prospect he is today. When he was drafted out of Denmark, Regin was so raw he was still using a stick so short it only went up to his belly button. His hockey sense and offensive skills were always there, but the rest of his game has really developed well. His skating is much better, he plays a mature and aware game in all three zones, and he is a potential second line center who has the utility and maturity to stick as a third liner otherwise.

Other Comments: (Prospect Ranking)
SensGuy: (5) His intelligence stands out. He's solid offensively, but tremendous defensively for someone in their first year in North America. Once he bulks up, could become a decent 2nd line player, but great 3rd line guy. A more talented Chris Kelly seems like a decent comparison.
Zamboner: (4) Top 6 forward - Great awareness in both zones, and elite skating and stickhandling. Like Zubov, he plays in traffic. More of a playmaker than sniper. His height and lankiness give him room to bulk up considerably. Will likely be in the NHL full-time before the end of this year.
armani: (4)
Indrew: (4) Projects to be comparable to Ylonen
Krazy Tea: (4) Has looked like the best call-up from Bingo this year, playing a solid game in Bingo led the team in +/-. Excellent prospect at either end of the ice, plenty of dangles, great stick skills. Has translated his game to the NHL quite well, amazing back checker. Looks like a third liner with some offense maybe a top 6 guy with the right combinations.
Theo Huxtable: (5) I ranked Regin ahead of Zubov because I liked what I saw from Regin at the NHL level - he appears to be a more complete player then Zubov. Regin showed very well in his six games in the NHL - he is clearly a very smart player with an above average hockey IQ. Regin showed that he is not afraid to go into the corners and the dirty zones on the ice - he is clever with the puck along the boards and makes very good passes. I think Regin could improve his skating a bit, but looks to be a surefire NHL 3rd liner going forward.
moz: (4) He has rocketed up my rankings since seeing him in the NHL. He is incredibly poised, and patient. He seems to read the ice extremely well which makes him valuable at both ends of the ice. He has great skill but it is his anticipation and playmaking which make him so valuable - I too would rank him ahead of Zubov at this point. It seems the time in the SEL has done him a world of good, he plays like a player 5 years more experienced. A top-6 NHL future is absolutely within his grasp, perhaps as early as next year. I don't know that his point ceiling is especially high but I have a feeling he will contribute every night in some manner.


6. Patrick Wiercioch

Patrick Wiercioch

Senators Player Page
HockeyDB Player Page

Defense - Burnaby, BC - 6'3", 178 lbs - DOB 1990
Drafted 2nd round, 42nd overall 2008

2008-09 University of Denver NCAA 25GP 10G 13A 23P 18PIM

If the old adage that the year after being drafted is the most important in a prospect’s development is true in the least, this 2008 second rounder could not be progressing better. At this time a year ago Wiercioch was 6’2” and playing average hockey in the USHL. Now he is almost 6’5” and perhaps the top freshman in the NCAA, producing at a rate very rarely seen by an 18 year old blueliner. Offensively gifted and still very raw, Wiercioch has impressive offensive awareness and instincts. With another year or two at the University of Denver, he should be able to grow into his body and in turn improve his strength, skating and physical play.

Other Comments: (Prospect Ranking)
SensGuy: (6) What he's doing is pretty amazing, but he's still pretty raw. Great offensive instincts, and the body and reach to be great defensively as well. While his potential is tough to pin down, the sky appears to be the limit for him.
Zamboner: (5) Top 4 D-man - Great outlet pass and knows how to advance a play and run the PP. Great shot and decent skating. Not bad defensively, which is a huge plus for an offensive D-man. Still growing, and will need to put a lot of weight on his frame. This could affect his skating, so he should probably continue working on it. Wiercioch will play at least one more year with DU, and will look to make the Canadian WJC squad in December 2009.
armani: (6)
Indrew: (5) Projects to be comparable to Mara, before the offense was lost
Krazy Tea: (6) Putting up huge numbers at Denver thus far, have to be careful and not get too excited though. Matt Carle put up similar if not better numbers during his stay at Denver. He has not panned out just yet in the NHL being trade bait more often then not, and is now playing in Philadelphia. That said Wiercioch has apparently shown a ton of talent, I won't talk about a prospect I haven't seen though. I'll leave his evaluation to SensGuy, but he should be a PP QB in Ottawa within 3-4 years.
Theo Huxtable: (4) I seem to be a bit higher on Wiercioch then some other contributors - for an 18 year-old freshman d-man to be producing at such a high rate in the NCAA, it would appear his ceiling is quite high and deserves a top 5 ranking at this time.


7. Jim O’Brien

Jim O'Brien

Senators Player Page
HockeyDB Player Page

Forward - Maplewood, MN - 6'2", 200 lbs - DOB 1989
Drafted 1st round, 29th overall 2007

2008-09 Seattle Thunderbirds WHL 47GP 18G 26A 44P 39PIM

O’Brien is reminiscent of current Senators Antoine Vermette and Mike Fisher in that he is less than the sum of his parts. O’Brien has great size, strength and skating ability, but lacks the offensive awareness and creativity to project as a scoring line player. There is little reason to doubt he will play at the NHL level, but his upside appears lower than the players above him. He might be better served as a power winger considering his limitations.

Other Comments: (Prospect Ranking)
SensGuy: (7) When he heads to Bingo next year, we'll get a better read on his offensive skills, but it doesn't look that great right now. Could be another Mike Fisher, which is hardly a bad thing, but with the Sens lack of talented forwards, would be lovely if he developed more of an offensive game.
Zamboner: (6) Great 3rd line winger - Big body that skates effortlessly. A decent passer that works his heart out every shift. He doesn't appear to have the offensive IQ the club hoped he'd develop, and this will likely limit him to the 3rd line. O'Brien will join Bingo next year, and may even push for a spot on the big club.
armani: (7)
Indrew: (7) Projects to be comparable to Fisher
Krazy Tea: (7) Was very hopeful for this prospect after he was drafted but hasn't shown very much to be excited about since. Doesn't seem like a huge offensive contributor, great shutdown guy. Once he gets to the AHL it will be easier to see what kind of player he really is. 3rd line checking forward.
Theo Huxtable: (7)
moz: (6) Definitely projects as a safe third line forward who might be able to chip in a bit of offense. While he has shown some decent offensive production in Seattle, I think his play in Minnesota is more reflective of what he could realistically contribute to an NHL franchise. Probably not worthy of his draft position, but his size, skating ability and work ethic should make him a decent contributor.


8. Zack Smith

Zack Smith

Senators Player Page
HockeyDB Player Page

Forward - Medicine Hat, AB - 6'2", 202 lbs - DOB 1988
Drafted 3rd round, 79th overall 2008

2008-09 Binghamton Senators AHL 50GP 13G 17A 30P 83PIM
2008-09 Ottawa Senators NCAA 1GP 0G 0A 0P 0PIM

A classic late bloomer, Smith was passed over twice and now looks like a steal from last year’s third round. A late growth spurt and hard work largely account for the fact he now looks like a future NHL third liner instead of an overage WHLer and CIS-bound player. Although he likely lacks the skating and pure skill to be a scoring line player, Smith is a tough and gritty player with the nose for the net, who like O’Brien also might be better served on the wing.

Other Comments: (Prospect Ranking)
SensGuy: (9) Seemed to benefit from playing in Binghamton with two highly skilled guys in Zubov and Shannon, but that's not a bad thing. Perhaps that shows he can be a good complementary guy on a skilled line. Probably needs more time in the AHL to fill out and refine his game.
Zamboner: (10) Great character and work ethic. He combines physical play with a scoring touch. His skating could also use some work.
armani: (10)
Indrew: (10) Projects to be comparable to Moss
Krazy Tea: (9) Playing pretty well in Bingo, will hopefully end with a 70 point season. Big character kid although it routinely seems he gets his ass kicked by the enforcers in the AHL, probably will change as he gets a little bigger. It seems he has this odd fighting style (at least to me) where he kind of dodges the punches for awhile, its pretty strange anyways. Plays hard every day and hopefully that will get him into Ottawa as a 3rd/4th line checker with the ability to score.
Theo Huxtable: (9) Smith is a good player with good size, decent hands and a nose for the net. Will stand up for his teammates and drop the gloves when needed. He really needs to work on his skating. From what I've seen, Smith will max out as a 3rd line two-way forward at the NHL level and play a physical style of game.
moz: (8) Echoing the others, he seems like a hard worker who has a good combination of abilities, offensive, defensive and physical. While I doubt his offensive knack will translate too much to the NHL, it is reassuring that he at least prospers when playing with skilled players, as opposed to other grinders who can look lost or a step behind. He can play on any of the bottom three lines and seems a pretty versatile young player. An NHL future is entirely within reach if he keeps up the work.


9. Mattias Karlsson

Mattias Karlsson

Senators Player Page
HockeyDB Player Page

Defense - Orebro, Sweden - 6'2", 220 lbs - DOB 1985
Drafted 4th round, 135th overall, 2003


2008-09 Binghamton Senators AHL 45GP 4G 25A 29P 28PIM

After being all but written off because of his inability to find a regular job in the Swedish Elite League for so long, Karlsson has broken out in a big way at the AHL this year. An all-star as a rookie, Karlsson is intriguing for his package of great size and legitimate offensive abilities. A lack of skating ability and overall decision-making could use work though, but he is no longer a forgotten prospect.

Other Comments: (Prospect Ranking)
SensGuy: (10) For a big guy, he could stand to be a lot more physical, but that's not his game. Smooth offensively, and solid defensively. It appears his skating will be what holds him back.
Zamboner: (8) 5-6 D-man - Smart player in both zones. Is not the best skater, but has exceptional positioning and marking in his own end and advances the play with great passes. Is a big, big guy. The anti-Schubert may be able to steal the Schubert/Bell spot next year.
armani: (8)
Indrew: (8) Projects to be comparable to Kalinin
Krazy Tea: (11) Playing well in Bingo, can he bring his skating level up and play in the NHL? I don't think so.
Theo Huxtable: (10)
moz: (10) He's flown under the radar for quite a few years, but has arisen with a vengeance this season, taking advantage of the holes left in Binghamton's blueline with the recall of Bell and Lee. I think he could play on the Senators blueline this season and not cost them. The skating issue is a concern since the Senators defense might be the slowest, ploddingest blueline in the league, but if he can make up for it in other areas he might have an NHL future yet. It is important to remember that he is still young at 23 and plenty of improvement is possible.


10. Louie Caporusso

Louie Caporusso

Senators Player Page
HockeyDB Player Page

Forward - Toronto, ON - 5'10", 185 lbs - DOB 1989
Drafted 3rd round, 90th overall 2007


2008-09 University of Michigan NCAA 30GP 22G 11A 33P 24PIM

Caporusso is the best of a group of mid-round offensive prospects in the club’s prospect pool. As a sophomore at the University of Michigan, he has been maybe the best goal scorer in all of the NCAA this year. Somewhat undersized and an underwhelming skater for a player his size, Caporusso has drawn comparisons to Mike Comrie, Mike Cammalleri and Nigel Dawes for being a small player who scores without being a speedy. Hard work on strength and power skating is a must for any player in this mold.

Other Comments: (Prospect Ranking)
SensGuy: (8) Pure goal scorer. I'm not sure he'll make it at the NHL level, but there's certainly hope for him. If anything will hold him back, it will be his skating.
Zamboner: (7) Top 6 winger or BUST - Excellent offensive IQ, shot, and hands. A fiesty and pesky forechecker, who is way too small to carry over this trait to the big leagues. His offensive skill (20 goals in 28 games as a sophomore at UM) will either carry him in the NHL, or he'll bust.
armani: (9)
Indrew: (9) Projects to be comparable to Bochenski
Krazy Tea: (8) Another great Italian kid to play in Michigan, his last name translates as Russian Captain, I'm pretty sure he's involved with the mob so I won't say anything terrible about him. Not sure he can keep scoring goals at the professional level like he has in the NCAA but certainly there is room for optimism. Have to agree, top 6 or bust here.
Theo Huxtable: (8)


11. Tomas Kudelka


HockeyDB Player Page

Defense - Zlin, Czech Republic - 6'1", 176 lbs - DOB 1987
Drafted 5th round, 136th overall 2005


2008-09 Binghamton Senators AHL 49GP 6G 14A 20P 43PIM

Kudelka was a faller in the 2005 draft, dropping from a projected second round selection to the fifth round. He played well for two years in the WHL and has taken a step forward this season in Binghamton. Another step forward next year is vital.

Other Comments: (Prospect Ranking)
SensGuy: (14) Much better this year than last. Hopefully he can continue the upward swing, but doubt he makes it to the NHL. Has really benefitted from Brendan Bell and Brian Lee staying in Ottawa most of the year.
Zamboner: (13)
armani: (13)
Indrew: (12)
Krazy Tea: (13) Having a better year don't know a lot about him though, don't see him taking it to the next level at this rate.
Theo Huxtable: (18)
moz: (13) Last year was a horrible year for him, but he seems back on track. He is not remarkable in anyway but might just drift into a bottom-pairing position on an NHL team in two or three years time, I don't believe that it will be with Ottawa.


12. Andre Petersson


HockeyDB Player Page

Forward - Olofstrom, Sweden - 5'9", 169 lbs - DOB 1990
Drafted 4th round, 109th overall 2008

2008-09 HV71 Jrs. J20 24GP 15G 20A 35P 26PIM
2008-09 HV71 SEL 8GP 0G 0A 0P 0PIM

Petersson needs three or four years on the Peter Regin development trajectory. Talented but flawed, most of all Petersson will need to upgrade his skating, particularly his balance, which would be best achieved with regular time in the Swedish Elite League.

Other Comments: (Prospect Ranking)
SensGuy: (11) It'll be interesting to see how he adjusts to playing in the upper league in Sweden. Certainly some skill there, but that's not the reason why he fell in the draft.
Zamboner: (9) Top 6 forward or BUST - The Swedish Louie Caporusso. Great offensive instincts, hands, and shot. For his small size, he should be a much better skater. May get a full-time spot in the SEL next year. Needs to work on strength and speed.
armani: (12)
Indrew: (14)
Krazy Tea: (10) Offensive winger, ton of potential, knocks are that he doesn't play hard every day. Dominated at junior will have to see how he plays against men, so far just one point in 10 games. It's kind of hard to picture him taking the next step to the NHL but he has the skill to get here if can maintain his commitment levels to the game.
Theo Huxtable: (11)
moz: (12) Absolutely impressive offensively in the World Juniors, however the knocks against him are numerous and justified. His small size is the biggest concern, though not a roadblock if he wants it bad enough. I don't know that he'll ever make it to the NHL, due to factors independent of his skill, but the first step is being competitive in the SEL, something he has yet to do.


13. Cody Bass


HockeyDB Player Page

Forward - Owen Sound, ON - 6'1", 213 lbs - DOB 1987
Drafted 4th round, 95th overall 2005

2008-09 Binghamton Senators AHL 18GP 1G 1A 2P 41PIM
2008-09 Ottawa Senators NHL 12GP 0G 0A 0P 15PIM

Bass is a unique prospect, in that there is near-consensus that he will be an NHL player, but also that he lacks the scoring ability to even be a true third liner. Injuries are now a concern as well.

Other Comments: (Prospect Ranking)
SensGuy: (12) I don't think he'll be anything more than 4th liner, but a sure-fire NHL'er. Worried about these injury issues.
Zamboner: (12)
armani: (15)
Indrew: (21+) I think Cody Bass is too injury-prone to make it, sadly.
Krazy Tea: (12) Injury prone but can be a menacing player to play against when healthy. 3/4 liner.
Theo Huxtable: (12)
moz: (9) I definitely feel that Cody Bass can be a permanent NHL from this point onward, whether it's with Ottawa or elsewhere. He will rise above a 4th/borderline 3rd role, but he can provide some sandpaper and energy that every team needs. He will never be an offensive contributor. As others mentioned, injuries are a concern, and may lead to him being superceded in the depth chart. I have him ranked much higher than others, but only because he is clearly destined to have a respectable NHL career. "Top 6 or bust" prospects who lean more toward the bust rank lower.


14. Kaspars Daugavins


HockeyDB Player Page

Forward - Riga, Latvia - 5'11", 181 lbs - DOB 1988
Drafted 3rd round, 91st overall 2006


2008-09 Binghamton Senators AHL 23GP 2G 1A 3P 9PIM
2008-09 St. Michael's Majors OHL 18GP 3G 9A 12P 18PIM

Where other prospects have broken out this year, Daugavins took a step back. The talent remains there but better commitment and conditioning are necessary. The Latvian also needs to figure out what kind of prospect he wants to be, a role player and sparkplug or a scorer, and adjust accordingly.

Other Comments: (Prospect Ranking)
SensGuy: (13) 4th best prospect my ass. Put him here because he's probably more talented than the rest.
Zamboner: (14)
armani: (11)
Indrew: (13)
Krazy Tea: (13) Significantly regressed this year, going back to the OHL was not really at good thing at Daugavins' age. Barring any miracles I would essentially say that his chance at the NHL is over.
Theo Huxtable: (20)
moz: (15) The opening write-up puts it best: there are serious questions about commitment and conditioning. While I had hope in his leadership from his accomplishments with a poor team in St. Michaels and as a youngster with Latvia, he seems unable to stand out amongst more talented teammates. He's at a sink or swim juncture in his career and while there is hope he can put it together, he quickly is being surpassed by other prospects.


15. Colin Greening


HockeyDB Player Page

Forward - St. John's, NF - 6'2", 210 lbs - DOB 1986
Drafted 7th round, 206th overall 2005


2008-09 Cornell University NCAA 23GP 7G 12A 19P 8PIM

In this day and age, being drafted out of Upper Canada College as Greening was is even less common than from Denmark. Greening has developed nicely, and now is a legitimate prospect. He will be 23 next month and with his size and strength can play AHL hockey now, but returning for a senior year would not be a waste either.

Other Comments: (Prospect Ranking)
SensGuy: (15) I think he may have more NHL potential than most, as I appear to have him higher than most everyone else. He's huge, is a leader on his team, and can score goals. Hope he gets to Bingo in the near future.
Zamboner: (18)
armani: (21+)
Indrew: (18)
Krazy Tea: (17)
Theo Huxtable: (14)


16. Derek Grant


HockeyDB Player Page

Forward - Abbotsford, BC - 6'3", 190 lbs - DOB 1990
Drafted 4th round, 119th overall 2008

2008-09 Langley Chiefs BCHL 31GP 24G 31A 55P 22PIM

Grant is likely the furthest away from the NHL of any player on this list. He has yet to play above Junior A, and has nothing left to prove there. Just how good a scorer, or prospect in general, he is remains an unanswerable question at this point.

Other Comments: (Prospect Ranking)
SensGuy: (20) I guess we'll see what he can do in College, but he's dominating the BCHL like he should be.
Zamboner: (11)
armani: (16)
Indrew: (11)
Krazy Tea: (15) Did pretty decent in the BCHL until his recent injury, seems to be a little injury prone to me. Proved to be a better prospect than I thought but it will be good to see how his game carries over into the NCAA. Not holding my breath on this one but there is some hope that he can be a decent prospect.
Theo Huxtable: (13)
moz: (14) As SensGuy points out, Grant's dominance of the BCHL is more of an expectation than an achievement - check out the statistics of previous talented players to roll through that league like Kyle Turris or Travis Zajac. His offensive prowess against relatively weak competition is evident, but real questions will be answered if he can translate his offensive game against college or professional opponents. Most important will be whether he can add the defensive and physical elements to his game which will make an NHL career possible.


17. Erik Condra


HockeyDB Player Page

Forward - Trenton, MI - 6'0", 202 lbs - DOB 1986
Drafted 7th round, 211th overall 2006

2008-09 Notre Dame NCAA 29GP 8G 16A 24P 30PIM

Nobody doubts Condra’s intelligence or character. He is one of the most respected captains in the NCAA, and is a pre-med student to boot. An ACL injury last year is likely to blame for a disappointing senior year, but he has role player upside.

Other Comments: (Prospect Ranking)
SensGuy: (16) His all around game is real good. Shouldn't have much issues adjusting to the AHL, but don't see a whole lot beyond that.
Zamboner: (16)
armani: (17)
Indrew: (16)
Krazy Tea: (14) Put up decent numbers in the NCAA, could be a solid AHL player, don't see him in the NHL.
Theo Huxtable: (15)


18. Emil Sandin


HockeyDB Player Page

Forward - Upsaala, Sweden - 5'10", 178 lbs - DOB 1988
Drafted 7th round, 199th overall 2008

2008-09 Brynas IF Gavle SEL 45GP 5G 9A 14P 6PIM

Sandin is kind of a throwback pick to the days when the Senators plucked overagers like Daniel Alfredsson, Andreas Dackell and Magnus Arvedson out of Sweden. He has played well this year in the Swedish Elite League and his style projects well to the NHL game.

Other Comments: (Prospect Ranking)
SensGuy: (21+)
Zamboner: (17)
armani: (18)
Indrew: (17)
Krazy Tea: (16) Able to play decent hockey with Brynas IF in Sweden, putting up some decent numbers. Anders Forsberg, the Senators Swedish Amateur Scout thinks he needs one more year before he can play in the NHL. He is a decent set up man, won most points and assists in the north division in the J20 as well as the highest +/-.
Theo Huxtable: (19)
moz: (19) Don't expect to see Sandin ever make the transition to the NHL. He appears to have decent skills but lacks size and strength - hopefully he'll enjoy a healthy career in the SEL, but don't expect much more out of this overager.


19. Shawn Weller


HockeyDB Player Page

Forward - Glen Falls, NY - 6'2", 205 lbs - DOB 1986
Drafted 3rd round, 77th overall 2004

2008-09 Binghamton Senators AHL 44GP 2G 5A 7P 24PIM
2008-09 Elmira Jackals ECHL 4GP 1G 1A 2P 2PIM

This has been a disappointing year for Weller. He has all the tools to be a good third liner, good size, physical enthusiasm, strong skating ability and some offensive potential, but the window of opportunity will slam shut if he does not get his game together soon.

Other Comments: (Prospect Ranking)
SensGuy: (18) Seems to have taken a step back, which is unfortunate.
Zamboner: (21+)
armani: (19)
Indrew: (21+)
Krazy Tea: (19)
Theo Huxtable: (21+)


20. Ruslan Bashkirov


HockeyDB Player Page

Forward - Moscow, Russia - 5'11", 186 lbs - DOB 1989
Drafted 2nd round, 60th overall 2007


2008-09 Tolyatti Lada KHL 2GP 0G 0A 0P 2PIM
(statistics incomplete)

Where in the world is Ruslan Bashkirov? The answer is not where he should be. Literally, that means not in the CHL, and abstractly that means not developing. To write off a second round pick 20 months later feels a bit odd though, so he gets the final spot on this list for no reason other than that.

Other Comments: (Prospect Ranking)
SensGuy: (21+)
Zamboner: (21+)
armani: (20)
Indrew: (21+)
Krazy Tea: (20)
Theo Huxtable: (21+)
moz: (16) Bashkirov will likely never see NHL time due to poor career choices, not lack of skill or ability. He is a gifted scorer who drives to the net with surprising abandon and showed consistent effort even when a game is out of reach. Unfortunately, his commitment to his twin brother appears to outweigh his commitment to a North American hockey career. While he is not entirely a lost cause, evidenced by his appearance at the most recent Senators development cause, playing in a third tier Russian league is of no help to him nor the Senators. He could be a recovered prospect someday, but don't bank on it.



Honourable Mentions:

Ben Blood
SensGuy: (17) Not even playing at UND most nights.
Zamboner: (15)
Indrew: (15)


Vitaly Anikeyenko
Theo Huxtable: (16)


Kirill Lyamin
Theo Huxtable: (17)


Eric Gryba
SensGuy: (19) - Haven't seen him once, just put him here.
Zamboner: (19)
Indrew: (19)

Sunday, February 1, 2009

Scouting Report: Patrick Wiercioch

Ottawa's 2nd round pick in the 2008 draft, Patrick Wiercioch, was originally scheduled to play another year in the USHL, where he was coming off a dominant showing in the USHL playoffs for the Omaha Lancers. He had verbally committed to the University of Wisconsin to begin playing in the fall of 2009, but with the unfortunate ending to David Carle's hockey career due to medical issues, he was able to jump on an opportunity to play at Denver University. Thus far, he's taken full advantage of it.

When Wiercioch was drafted, he was listed at 6'2", but over the summer added a couple of inches and is now listed at 6'4", and looks every bit of it. At only 185 pounds, it could be several years before he actually fills out. At the moment, he looks like a player who still doesn't know how to handle this growth spurt. For someone so big, his physical game is almost non-existent. This is something that could certainly develop over the years, once he learns how to play with this body.

Wiercioch's skating may be one of his weaknesses. Even before the draft his skating was criticized, and it doesn't look like this growth spurt has helped him a whole lot. He's got a long stride, but it's not very powerful. For a man his size, his skating could be considered average, but there is room for improvement and as long as he continues to get stronger, his skating should improve.

You only have to watch Wiercioch once to recognize how well he thinks the game in the offensive zone. As a teenager, he's running their first power play unit, and is excelling while doing so. The one thing you notice with Wiercioch on the power play is that he's never static. He's always moving around, which is a key to why he's been so successful. He's willing to roam all over the ice if he has to, something that perhaps the Ottawa Senators could use on their PP right now. His overall hockey IQ and offensive ability have been the biggest reasons why he's had no issues playing at the NCAA level.

At the same time, while he's a roamer in the offensive zone, he also has a tendency to roam in his own end. He plays in all situations, and has had no problem adjusting to them, but you will often notice him trying to leave the zone a bit early trying to lead an offensive rush. At this stage, it's nothing to worry about, as good coaching can certainly fix this (and DU has good coaching). And, as mentioned earlier, an improved physical game would add an entirely different dimension to his game. His added size really helps him on the PK, where his long reach makes him very effective.

Overall, his adjustment to the college level has been a tremendous surprise. While Ottawa GM Bryan Murray recently said he may be closer to the NHL level than 1st round pick Erik Karlsson, it looks as though a few more years at the college level would be very beneficial for him, so he can continue to develop his all-around game and gain strength. As long as he continues developing, he should have a good chance to make Team Canada in next years World Junior Championships, which would be great for someone like Wiercioch, who wasn't even on Team Canada's radar earlier this year.

DU will be televised on the NHL Network on February 6th (US Only) and February 20th (US and Canada) so Sens fans will have the chance to watch him on TV in the near future.