The Ottawa Prospector

Michael Sharp: Hockey Blogger Extraordinaire

2009-09-16T15:29:00.005-04:00

For anyone with an interest in following the progress of Ottawa's prospects, and the Binghamton AHL team for which many of them play, Michael Sharp's blog, Sharp on Sens, is invaluable.

Here's a recap of his latest and greatest.

"We were the quickest team in the tournament" - new Bingo head coach Don Nachbaur's impressions of the rookie tournament in Kitchener.

"I thought all the drafted players, and the free agents that showed up, were outstanding," he said. "Had a tremendous show. I thought within the tournament our scouts did a really good job of assembling young talent, and we really utilized our speed. We were the quickest team in that tournament, and consequently, we were able to score some big numbers throughout the tournament.

"But names? Our young goaltender (Robin Lehner) was outstanding. Jimmy O'Brien was good. Condra had an excellent camp. (Keegan) Dansereau. I mean, we go through the list of guys -- I thought everybody had a real decent showing for themselves."

Lehner in 2010? - Binghamton General Manager Tim Murray talks about Robin Lehner.

"Obviously, he's committed and we've committed for him to go to (the OHL's Soo Greyhounds) this year, but we'll see the year he has in the Soo," Ottawa assistant GM Tim Murray said. "We'll see who we have coming back. As you know in the American League, there's a lot of one-year deals, and guys moving on to better opportunities, or perceived better opportunities. So, yeah, it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility that at 19-turning-20, he'd be playing in Binghamton."

Rookie Watch: Jim O'Brien - Binghamton General Manager Tim Murray talks about Jim O'Brien.

"He had a good tournament. Jimmy's biggest thing is consistency, I think, as any player. And strength. And early in the shift, he's really jumping and flying, and later on in the shift, you can see his strength and stamina and skating suffer a little bit. And I find that with most young players. He's got a good head on his shoulders. I think he can play both ends of the rink. He can shoot the puck. I think it's just a matter of, again, the grind. Him moving to Seattle (in the WHL) two years ago from (the University of) Minnesota I think will really help that area of it. I think he's grown up a lot, and he wants to be a player. So, he'll have an opportunity to play with good players down there, and we'll just see what he does."

Kaspars Daugavins Update - recovering from offseason shoulder surgery and almost ready for contact.

THN: Video Report on Erik Karlsson

2009-09-14T17:32:00.003-04:00

Ted Cooper of The Hockey News has an interview and video report with Senators prospect Erik Karlsson.

http://www.thehockeynews.com/articles/27827-VIDEO-Rookie-blueliner-Karlsson-poised-to-make-his-mark-in-Ottawa.html

Senators Reduce Training Camp Roster by Nine Players

2009-09-14T17:01:00.003-04:00

OTTAWA, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - Sept. 14, 2009) - The Ottawa Senators reduced today their training camp roster by nine players.

All nine were assigned to attend the club's American Hockey League's Binghamton Senators' training camp, which opens Wednesday, Sept. 16, at Binghamton's Broome County Veterans Memorial Arena.

The group includes four defencemen: Paul Baier, Mat Robinson, Craig Schira and Kyle Wharton; and five forwards: Jason Bailey (RW), Keegan Dansereau (LW), Kaspars Daugavins (RW), Matt Lowry (RW) and Brandon Svendsen (RW).

The Senators camp roster is now comprised of 46 players: six goaltenders, 12 defencemen and 28 forwards.

Senators Rookie Tournament Roster Announced

2009-09-04T20:38:00.002-04:00

The Ottawa Senators have announced the roster for this year's rookie tournament to be held in Kitchener from the 7th to 10th of September.

Goaltenders:
Shane Connelly (Wisconsin - WCHA)
Robin Lehner (Frolunda Jr. - Sweden)

Defencemen:
Paul Baier (Portland - AHL)
Collin Bowman (Kelowna - WHL)
Erik Karlsson (Frolunda HC, Boras HC - Sweden)
Geoff Kinrade (Michigan Tech - WCHA, Norfolk - AHL, Tampa Bay - NHL)
Mat Robinson (Las Vegas - ECHL, Alaska-Anchorage - WCHA)
Craig Schira (Vancouver - WHL)
Kyle Wharton (Johnstown - ECHL, Syracuse - AHL)

Forwards:
Jason Bailey (Bakersfiled - ECHL)
Erik Condra (Notre Dame - CCHA)
Keegan Dansereau (Swift Current - WHL)
Kaspars Daugavins (Binghamton - AHL, Mississauga - OHL)
Jordan Hale (Brandon - WHL)
Michael Hoffman (Drummondville - QMJHL)
Casey Lee (U. of Saskatchewan - CWUAA)
Matt Lowry (Brandon - WHL)
Jim O’Brien (Seattle - WHL, Binghamton - AHL)
Brett Parnham (Oshawa - OHL, Rochester - AHL)
Peter Regin (Binghamton - AHL, Ottawa - NHL)
Zack Smith (Binghamton - AHL, Ottawa - NHL)
Brandon Svendsen (Idaho - ECHL, Bowling Green - CCHA)

The tournament is a round-robin between rookie teams representing the Toronto Maple Leafs, Boston Bruins, and Pittsburgh Penguins. Check the link for Kitchener game schedules and pre-tournament Sensplex open practice schedules.

Not Your Typical Prospect

2009-08-27T15:25:00.004-04:00

Peter R. over at SilverSeven has an interesting post about Jeremy Yablonski. He was originally signed to an AHL deal for this season but the team tore it up and signed him to a 2-way deal, and AGM Tim Murray had this to say.

"Well, we're going to give him an opportunity for sure," Murray said. "We had contract space. You're allowed 50 NHL contracts, (so) we had contract space. I think he's done everything we've asked him to do the two previous years down there. He's been a great teammate. He's fought for his teammates. He's been very professional about it. He fights for the right reasons, and he's certainly not an idiot the way some of those big guys can be. He's been great, so I guess as a bit of a reward -- it gives him the opportunity to come to camp and earn a job, rather than just come to camp and get sent down right away. And it gets it (done), we don't have to do (the contract) in camp if he plays well in camp. And it doesn't give another team an opportunity to give him an NHL deal. So I think it was good for him and good for us.

He's not going to see much if any icetime but his is an interesting story line to follow. Very much the antithesis of Dany Heatley and his me-first attitude.

Outlook: Ilya Zubov

2009-07-17T17:08:00.000-04:00

This is an intriguing one. Zubov has put in two years in the AHL, showing steady improvement. He got 10 games with the big club last year, and he's a known quantity for the coach of the big team, which should provide him some encouragement to push for the next level.

The downside of the current situation is that Zubov trailed off at the end of the season in Bingo, and didn't exactly distinguish himself during his 10 games in Ottawa. He wasn't bad, he was just unnoticeable, which is bad for a forward looking to eventually break into the Top 6.

The final two pros/cons are more recent developments. Zubov elected to go back to Russia for the summer, which has lead to speculation that he will not embrace an aggressive conditioning program like the one he participated in during the summer of 08 in Ottawa. More recently, Ottawa signed Alex Kovalev. It is hard to say exactly what impact having a respected elder Russian forward on the team will have, but it certainly should help dispel any lingering feeling that the team doesn't like Russians.

Finally, I've heard speculation that Zubov might just stay in Russia and sign with a KHL team, but he signed a 3-year ELC with Ottawa in 2007 and owes the team one more year. They could loan him to the KHL, but I don't think Zubov can play there without the Senators permission. They may have made private assurances about whether and when they might provide that permission, and we wouldn't know until it happens, but if the team thinks he's close (and they've said as much) then I doubt they'd release him to play in the KHL unless they either retain the right to bring him back next year (an out in his KHL contract) or they're giving up on him (unlikely).

Given the uncertainty about where he's going to play, and his conditioning level and attitude, I'm not willing to hazard a guess as to what his production might look like. I will say that this year is crucial in his ability to establish himself as a player, regardless of where he plays. He either needs to make the AHL look like he's outgrown it, establish himself in the NHL, or show he's a very good player in a good skilled pro league like the KHL.

SensBuzz: Summer 2009 Sens Top 10 Prospects

2009-07-15T17:05:00.005-04:00

SensBuzz has analyzed the Top 10 Senators Prospects.

1. Erik Karlsson
2. Jared Cowen
3. Ilya Zubov
4. Peter Regin
5. Patrick Wiercioch
6. Jim O'Brien
7. Louie Caporusso
8. Erik Condra
9. Robin Lehner
10. Zack Smith

Interview with Robin Lehner

2009-07-14T10:53:00.001-04:00

SilverSeven has an interesting interview with Robin Lehner, the Swedish goalie taken with one of Ottawa's second round picks in the 2009 draft.

I was very happy to get picked by Ottawa and even happier now when I was there. It's a great organization and they all are very good at what they do and they helped me very much at the camp. I was happy to get picked in the 2nd round, and I didn't think I would go before that.

Development Camp Report

2009-07-03T14:33:00.007-04:00

(reprinted from HockeyBroads.com)

I spent a couple hours at the Sensplex this morning. The prospects were split up into black and white squads. I caught both groups doing skating drills for the first hour. They were wearing elastic bands from the heels of their skates to their waists. I'd never seen that before. I guess it's to encourage them to keep low, and to provide resistance training for full extension during skating strides.

The second hour was mostly competitive drills ending in shooting opportunities. There were some pass-pass-pass-breakin drills, 2-on-2, 1-on-1, and finally a short breakaway competition.

Here are my observations, and I apologize for the disorder. I took notes whenever I could but I was trying to watch as much as I could, and I had a buddy to serve as a second pair of eyes, which also meant discussion to distract from the proceedings.

Peter Regin - Precise skater. Used by coaches to lead off drills and set good example. Skates barely leave the ice (as requested by the coaches). His speed was evident in comparison to most other prospects. Very smooth in motion and puck-handling.

Jim O'Brien - Looks small, but in a good way. The coaches were preaching getting low, he was LOW. He was so low that the elastics were dangling behind him and he sliced it during crossovers. His stance gave him a compact, powerful and explosive appearance. He executed the drills with particular intensity. He demonstrated a good wrist shot on a few scoring drills. His background as a D-man shows. He was effortless in defending 1-on-1 against some of the slicker offensive talents. I took note of the fact that he was the player asking the session coach questions as they left the ice, and he was also the friendliest with the kids waiting to bump fists with the players who as they left the skating drill rink. He was also one of the last guys to leave the ice after the competitive drills. Good character. He seems to really want it. At the NHL level I think he'll be a slightly larger Chris Kelly, with better hands. In other words, a very useful and versatile player.

Patrick Wiercioch - He does look large, but he also looks a little slow. He made some questionable plays during 2-on-2 coverage. Reaching around a guy on the up-ice side, leaving the guy an open path to the net. Maybe his head just wasn't in it. What I saw raised more questions than anything else.

Mike Sdao - Moves very well for a big guy. Good positioning against this level of competition. Suitably aggressive against the boards.

Cody Bass - Was the best skater in his group. Focused and competitive. He was banging guys, not to the point of injury, but raising the overall intensity. Perhaps taking on a leadership role in this group, appropriate for a guy of his experience. Additional comments in shootout section below.

Andre Petersson - This is the tale of two players. The first player was the one I saw during the skating drills. He looked slow and disinterested. He actually cut loops out of his skating drills, finishing ahead of others while skating slower. He looked sloppy. His crossovers were very high. His lines were poor. He looked lazy. The second player showed up for the competitive drills. He was faster and more intense during the shooting drills and the 2-on-2. The 2-on-2 had 2 attackers and 2 defenders (+goalie) and the attackers kept circling back and getting another puck and more chances to penetrate and score. He and Karlsson had a nice physical battle going on throughout the couple minutes they were matched up. Crosschecks to the back of the head. Reaching over the head and pulling the back of a guys collar down to the ice. General rough-housing. He showed a good shot and fair intensity. Still not one of the faster skaters though.

Erik Karlsson - One of the best skaters on the ice. Looks larger than expected. He looked completely average in this group. Much larger than the Caporussos or midgets like Brisebois, and just one or two sizes down from the really big guys. His passes were crisp. His skating was smooth. His coverage was solid. He showed some good intensity when required, and laid a guy into the boards when he got a chance.

Craig Schira - Not a big guy, but not small either. Observed him as the static guy passing to guys in motion during skate and shoot drills. His passes were CRISP. Also saw him show good positioning and 1-on-1 coverage.

Jakob Silfverberg - Missed most of his drills (as frequently happens at these things) but did manage to catch some very nice goals. Seems to have a strong wrist shot.

Mike Hoffman - Has a nose for the net. In position for dirty goals. Possesses a very hard and accurate wrist shot. He had a couple of goals from the slot where the goalie saw him coming the whole way. Nothing tricky. No screen. Just snap - goal. Moves very well. I don't know if there is any substance to the supposed 'character issues' but he seems like the type of prospect that has the tools to be a Top 6 guy. Speedy, slick, average size, nose for the net and a good shot. What's not to like?

Erik Gryba - The best 1-on-1 defender on the ice. Big, good positioning, and punishing when appropriate.

Ben Blood - The only thing I noticed was that his skating seems to be pretty stiff. He doesn't seem to fit in that well.

Shootout - After the competitive drills, two skaters (I think) from each team did shootouts against the opposing goalie. We found out after that the losing team would have to do pushups. I don't think either of the first guys scored. But Petersson scored a very slick goal for the Whites. And then it was Karlsson for the Blacks to tie it up. He had some good moves but the goalie shut the door and he missed. Black lost the competition.

Karlsson was swarmed by Petersson and Regin (both Whites) with fake high-5s and congratulations. Meanwhile his teammates were doing their pushups. Then Karlsson finally got to centre ice, dropped down and started his pushups. Bass, also Black Team, finished, got up, skated over to Karlsson and put pressed his stick against Karlsson's bum for some extra resistance. Big grins all around. They seemed like they were having fun.

Random Thoughts: Caporusso doesn't seem tiny, just a little small, and showed a decent shot. Brisebois is tiny, but had a sustained battle with a big guy in the corners and came out with the puck. Lehner is huge, and looked pretty good. My buddy thought he might have a weak glove hand though.

Awards: (my opinions)

The Men Among Boys Award: (Tie) Peter Regin and Cody Bass

The Hardest Worker Award: Jim O'Brien with an Honourable Mention for Cody Bass

The Best Shot Award: Mike Hoffman

The Best Skater Award: (tie) Erik Karlsson and Cody Bass

The Brick Wall Award (hardest to get through): Erik Gryba

The Clutch Passing Award: Erik Karlsson with an Honourable Mention to Craig Schira

More discussion available here.

Sean Keogh's Top 20 OHL Players for the 2009 NHL Entry Draft

2009-06-04T15:15:00.004-04:00

2009 Top 20 OHL Prospects
by Sean Keogh

I promised Brock (Ed: Brock Otten at ohlprospects.blogspot.com) that I would submit my own attempt at an OHL-based draft preview, and the fulfillment of such a promise is what follows. However I would like to be clear that that my viewings of some Western conference teams were limited. As a result I have to admit that on a couple of players near the end of my list, part of the basis for my evaluation of them comes from second party information, particularly Brock himself.

To further preface this piece, it is important to note that my approach was to try and offer my perspective on the skills, styles and potential of the players. This blog being the resource that it is already has much of the statistical information about these players, everything from position to vitals to point production. Therefore I felt that in order to allow for more complete and substantive commentary on each player, I did not include much of that. Moreover, my intent was not so much to provide a fixed ranking of players, and certainly not to predict the order in which these players will go, because at points I feel some players are almost interchangeable, and at other points there are drop-offs.

1) John Tavares

I will readily admit that I am in the camp with those who have concerns about John Tavares’ ability to be a true impact player at the next level. His scoring ability and hockey sense need no description or introduction, and there is little reason to doubt he will put up points at the next level. However, I have concerns about his skating, his ability to produce off the rush and his potential to develop an all-round game. Certainly watching Dany Heatley in Ottawa, there are significant similarities between the two, and no team would turn down the kind of production a player like Heatley gives the Senators year after year. However Heatley is not a well-rounded scorer or a true creator and I wonder if Tavares will struggle in that way as well. A question I come back to as well is whether Tavares is better suited to the wing than center as an NHLer. If my evaluation of his skill set and the style of play I think he will play at the next level is fair, that Tavares is more of a natural finisher and less a dominant puck-carrier, he is better suited on the wing. On the other hand, if Tavares sticks as a center, he will need to be more of a distributor and creator to be effective down the middle, which also means being a more assertive player in all three zones. All of that is not to be taken as a criticism of Tavares himself. I personally do not buy a lot into the questions of his character because of a lacklustre playoff performance, rather I simply see his skill set as being limited in some ways, but he is certainly worthy of the high praise and hype he has received.

2) Matt Duchene

Many of those who focus on the flaws of Tavares seem to, almost as an equal and opposite reaction, promote the strengths and assets of Matt Duchene, and there is little doubt that Duchene’s rising stock is at least partially tied to the question marks attaching themselves to Tavares. In my case however, I am not leading the Duchene fan club either, though I certainly like him as a player. I do not doubt he is legitimately worthy of being a top five pick this year. He has a wide range of skills, including impressive all-round skating ability, good offensive ability and a mature awareness in all three zones. That being said, I am not quite as enthusiastic about his top end potential as some. Every two-way OHL center projected to go in the top five of the draft is inevitably compared to Steve Yzerman or perhaps Joe Sakic, and Duchene is no different. For me I see some Stephen Weiss is Duchene though, a good all-round player who was an Yzerman-type player in the OHL, but I never felt was a truly dynamic offensive prospect. I see a lot of Duchene in Weiss, who is a good young NHL player, but not capable of impacting the game the way his more-maligned but also more highly touted 2001 draft-mate Jason Spezza can in the NHL. Obviously I see no reason to doubt that Duchene will be a very good player, nor does anybody else. However, I can not rank him ahead of Tavares without being sold on him as a potential all-star level scorer.

3) Ryan Ellis

To say Ryan Ellis’ last twelve months of hockey have been amazing would still not do his accomplishments justice. Everything he has touched has turned to Gold, both for him and his team. It is also a good time to be a dynamic offensive defenceman, thanks in large part to the Mike Green factor, a most common comparison for and potential justification of the selection of Ellis. One can be nearly certain that Green’s name will come up in TSN’s instant analysis after Ellis is drafted in Montreal. Offensively-speaking, Ellis has almost all of the tools. He is a good skater, outstanding puck-handler, smooth passer and has an impressively lethal shot from the point, perfectly complemented by off the charts instincts. However, the disagreement on Ellis stems from concerns about his size and defensive play. I have to admit I have mixed feelings about such concerns. On the one hand he is a small player, and does not really play much larger than his size. He does not compensate for a lack of size with outstanding lower body strength or a great sense of timing physically. While that could come with time and work, it will be no easy task for Ellis to turn himself in to a well-rounded rearguard. I am not convinced he will ever be more than a powerplay quarterback and offensive specialist; however, it is possible he goes in the top ten if a team is convinced he will be.

4) Calvin de Haan

It is somewhat curious to me that de Haan has not firmly found a place as a project first round pick by this point in the year. After his performance after Tavares and Del Zotto left Oshawa, and particularly his strong turn at the U18s, I see plenty of reason to move him in to the back half of the first round. The natural, inescapable comparison for de Haan as an undersized offensive blueliner is to the aforementioned Ellis, but I see them differently. De Haan is not as dynamic or as pure an offensive player as Ellis, and therefore his impact upside is lesser as well. However I believe strongly in his all-round awareness, patience and poise, and believe that he has better and safer pick to be a complete defenceman. His size is a limiting factor, and no doubt it will take de Haan some time to upgrade his strength, but the big steps he has taken over the last year give me reason to believe he has room to improve in that area. Although de Haan’s upside is not as an impact player, and he is not going to be compared to Mike Green, I do think he has the potential to be a solid puck-moving rearguard for a long time, and with the premium placed on such players, I would have no hesitations selecting him in last third of the first round. If Brock did not also have him at fourth, I might wonder if my Ottawa-area bias was getting in the way of things, but obviously that is not the only reason to be high on de Haan.

5) Peter Holland

My list deviates from Brock’s at this point, and it appears Hockey Canada and I have different views as well on Peter Holland. At mid-season having Holland ahead of Kadri and Kassian would have been an easier sell, but I will do my best to explain my view at this point. It is true that Holland so far OHLer has been something of an enigma in the OHL, at times passive, and other times very impressive, but certainly if nothing else inconsistent. While I do not dispute that Holland had a weak second half and can at times play a quiet perimeter game, I also see a lot in his tool box that I like. For one thing his combination of height and skating is noteworthy, and he moves with and without the puck with coordination and ease. I also like his hands, vision, offensive potential and all-round hockey sense. Where some see passive, indifferent play, I also see an intelligent young player who thinks on the ice. Over-thinking the game can cause inconsistency for many young players, and I suspect that relates well to Holland. I will not go as far as to say he has the kind of upside Jeff Carter has displayed, but I think they have similar skill sets and for that reason have Holland ahead of the next three forwards.

6) Nazem Kadri

It would seem as though ripping on Nazem Kadri has become something of a fad in recent months. Dating back to last season Kadri has been highly touted for this year’s draft, but he has seen his stock fall in the second half for a variety of reasons and in spite of an impressive playoff performance. Personally my concerns about Kadri are not related to his character or perceived selfish play, but rather the same questions Brock has addressed regarding his offensive upside. While Kadri has fancy moves and the occasional electrifying rush, those are not likely to work at the NHL level, and I am not convinced either that his offensive skills, specifically his hockey sense, will make him a consistent scorer at the next level. I actually see a fair bit of grit and effort in his game, and believe he could be a good role player at the next level, even a tweener second/third line type of guy, much like Antoine Vermette. For that reason I would not have him as a top ten pick, and would hesitate to take him over guys with more definite upside, but I would start looking at him around the middle of the first round, even if I can see how some might feel differently.

7) Ethan Werek

Joining de Haan on this list as an OHL rookie is Werek, a well-rounded forward with underrated upside. What I like about Werek is he has a versatile skill set. He can play center or wing, power or finesse, playmaker or finisher, although he is a master of none. In Kingston he performed better on the wing and I think his true potential is as a complete complimentary winger on a scoring line, kind of as a cross between Chris Kunitz and Mike Knuble. Werek’s skating is definitely his weakness, but I like his stride and see room for improvement. He is capable of making plays with the puck and on the rush; he simply needs to work on his acceleration, which is not surprising for a player who is one year removed from Junior A. While he is not flashy like Kadri or powerful like Kassian or smooth like Holland, I like his all-round combination and the fact he has a lot of elements in his game and was productive at the OHL level on a garbage team and at the U18s in a different style of game.

8) Zack Kassian

I appreciate that slotting Kassian here is likely the hardest ranking to justify. To some he is the third best available OHLer after the obvious two, and to those who value power forward prospects highly he is an exciting young player. Part of the reason I rank him here is because I do not fall in to the latter group. There is no doubt that Kassian has NHL size and strength, and that he has the potential to play a power game on more than a fourth line. He goes to the net, cycles the puck well and has some finish. However, I have serious concerns with not only his skating but his ability to create offence with the puck and on the fly. At the U18s, when the pace was quicker, the opponent more talented than the OHL, he seemed to have very little utility offensively other than as a big body down low. In the NHL, this would limit the number of systems where he could really have an impact. Now that is certainly not a useless skill, and Hall of Famers have made careers out of being exceptional in that area, but it is the reason I have Kassian behind the three forwards ahead of him, although any reconfiguration of them can be solidly justified in my opinion.

9) Ryan O’Reilly

It must be said that Ryan O’Reilly won me over at the U18s. Previously I saw a player with average size and talent and below average skating, but his intangibles shone through clearly to me at the tournament. There is little O’Reilly is not able or at least willing to do on the ice. He can score, hit, play defence, win faceoffs, kill penalties and in general play in almost any situation. At the next level, I do not see big offensive potential, but would be surprised if he does not make the NHL in some capacity. The limiting factor with O’Reilly is his skating. Not only is he not that quick, but his stride is technically weak, leaving him without much room to improve his power, acceleration, balance or agility. At the OHL and U18 level he can keep up, but it would take a lot of work to get his skating to the level where he can unlock any greater potential he may have. The natural counter-argument is that a guy like Mike Richards kind of did just that, improving his once average OHL skating and below average mechanics enough to make him a great NHL player with deceptive speed, but that is far, far easier said than done. I would not be shocked if O’Reilly slips in to the first round, but he is best suited as an early second rounder in my opinion.

10) Alex Hutchings

The only other player I firmly believe is worthy of a top two round selecting is Hutchings, the underrated and undersized Barrie forward. My confidence in Hutchings comes from the fact I like his skating for a smaller player. No doubt he is a good offensive player who buzzes around and is willing to go in to the tough areas despite limited size. However, every year there are several undersized forwards available for the draft from all different junior leagues and only a few separate themselves from the rest. What Hutchings has going for him is a good low drive, and a stride and puck-carrying style that allows him to use his lower center of gravity nicely. This kind of allows him to bump off defenders instead of shying away from them, an important asset for an undersized player without elite offensive skills. That does not mean that Hutchings can or will be able to necessarily play that game at the next level, that will require continued focus on adding strength and power to his frame, but I like his chances if he can do that.

11) Edward Pasquale

This is the first player I will have to admit I do not have a well-developed view of, and by extension not a prospect I have a strong opinion on. What I do know is that Pasquale is a big, technical goaltender who makes the saves he needs to but lacks the athleticism to make a lot of saves he should not. He is coming off a very strong year on an average team, and the fact he has already achieved success at the OHL level is an important step for a young goalie. Between his size, maturity and solid technical skills, he is a good goalie prospect in a draft weak at that position, so it is entirely possible he is the first tender taken in Montreal. Whether he has significant upside as a starting goaltender is the question that teams will have in deciding just how high they take him.

12) Taylor Doherty

I noted above that personally I do not have the common preference for power forwards, and the same would be true for jumbo-sized blueliners. Case in point, it already looks like I underestimated Tyler Myers last year. Although Taylor Doherty is not Myers, and he is not a first round prospect at this point, I do actually like him as a prospect. Playing on the same bad team as Werek in Kingston, Doherty had an up and down season, but the tools are unmistakable. He is extremely tall and has room to fill out, and has some good skating ability for a player his size. Laterally he struggles, but straight line he moves fairly well, which suggests that there is room for improvement in his skating in all directions. While he does not handle the puck like a grenade, he really does not have much offensive skill to speak of, which is why I like him to an extent. He projects very simply as a stay-at-home guy at the next level, and he could be a good one with some patience and refinement. I am surprised he is ranked as low as he is by Central Scouting to be honest.

13) Matt Clark

Matt Clark is an interesting case of a player who has simply kept improving since being drafted in to the OHL. A late round pick in to the OHL, and a late birthday in 1990 who narrowly missed being eligible last year, Clark was an 18 year old OHL rookie this year. That his draft stock steadily rose throughout the year is a testament to how well he played for Brampton. What Clark has going for him is size and mobility. At 6’3” and over 200lbs, he can handle big forwards, and his mobility allows him to cope with quicker ones as well. Clark also has some offensive skills and a willingness to jump in to the play at times, which suggests he has some all-round potential. In his own zone though, he needs some work with positioning and general awareness, as he can get caught scrambling at times. I am also not quite sure what kind of blueliner he projects to be at the next level. Although he has some interesting tools, I am not sure exactly what his niche will be because he is not particularly gifted offensively and is not overly refined defensively. Whereas a team picking Doherty knows exactly the kind of prospect they are working with, I am not so sure Clark is the same way.

14) Scott Stajcer

It has become fairly common for a handful of OHL goalies to be taken in the first three rounds each year, and Scott Stajcer is a decent bet to do the same. Unheralded coming in to the season, Stajcer managed to wrestle the starting job away from Tyler Beskowranny, an impressive feat considering the talent level of the Dallas Stars second rounder from 2008. Style-wise Stajcer is a bit more raw than Pasquale, showing similar size and a bit more athleticism, but also more inconsistency, which is a challenge in evaluating goalies. It is certainly not unusual, and perhaps even quite natural, for first or second year junior players to struggle with their consistency. However, what often separates the good goalies from the bad, the Steve Masons from the Craig Hilliers, is improving or outgrowing that consistency. An NHL team who was able to see more of Owen Sound may be convinced it was really simply the predictable ups and downs of a player in his first complete OHL season, and for that reason I would not be surprised in the least if Stajcer went fairly high.

15) Michael Latta

I would say that Michael Latta was a favourite of mine coming in to this year, and to an extent that is still the case. As a 16 year old he flashed nifty dangles and some nice grit, and early this year seemed to take a major step forward offensively. Not knowing the reasons for his surprising trade from Ottawa, I am not docking him on those grounds, but my doubts about Latta have grown as I have focussed increasingly on his skating. While he has nice moves and some offensive potential, he too often has to make extra moves or throw away the puck because his skating does not allow him to gain separation or create space. He cycles well, goes to the net and plays with some grit, but his size does not project as a true banger at the next level. His skating is not doomed by awful technique, so the potential for improved power and acceleration is there, and if he does that his NHL potential increases dramatically. There is some offence and some grit there, and while he will never impose physically, he has a solid stocky build and I would say his size is decent. I would consider him as a late second rounder, and think he would be a good third round pick for any team.

16) Jesse Blacker

I saw Windsor play several times this year, probably the most of any team other than Ottawa, and I still feel I do not have a great sense of what Jesse Blacker is capable of. Part of the reason for that is certainly the fact that after the trade deadline he was probably the sixth blueliner on the eventual Memorial Cup champions. In fact I found myself looking for him at times for just that reason. What I saw was a decently sized blueliner with nice skating ability and solid defensive positioning. Occasionally he showed some puck-rushing ability, but overall his offensive instincts, and in fact his involvement offensively in general, was average. In his own zone Blacker seemed to be fairly solid for a young blueliner, and I thought he improved as the season went along. Perhaps an important question is what role Blacker will play going forward with Windsor. Although Kwiet and Shutron will certainly graduate, with Ellis, Cam Fowler and Mark Cundari in the fold, will his offensive game be allowed to develop. I wonder what his upside is in his own zone as well, but there are some nice tools there, and for that reason he is an intriguing potential third rounder.

17) Jordan Szwarz

I have to admit I wish I saw more of Szwarz because in my limited viewings, I did not get a good read on the offensive skill others like Brock are convinced he has. While he bounced around in the offensive zone and reminded me a bit of Hutchings, in my viewings he did not create a ton. Moreover, I did not see a particularly well-rounded player, nor does his size suggest he has much potential in that regard. Therefore I am limited in what I can offer on Szwarz, and while I have seen hints at his offensive potential, he certainly never showed to me what others believe he is capable of doing. Of course, that seems to also be the knock on him, because he would have scored a fair bit more than he did if consistency was not a concern. I rank him here because I believe the upside of available prospects begins to drop off at this point.

18) Taylor Beck

Taylor Beck is a hard player for me to evaluate. As someone who is very focussed on skating, particularly the technical aspects, Beck is not my favourite prospect available. I have serious concerns that his skating, awkward as it is, and already average at best in the OHL, limits him a fair bit. On the other hand, he does have good size and decent offensive skill, particularly hand-eye-coordination. The question is whether or not Beck will be one of those players who does not look pretty, but nonetheless seems to get to where he needs to be in order to be effective. If I saw more top end offensive skills I would be more inclined towards the latter, but I am not sure that is the case. Although he is a hard working offensive forward, he does not seem particularly well developed as an all-round player. Beck is neither a strong defensive player, nor a bruising physical specimen, despite decent size and some willingness to use it to protect the puck offensively. His skating would be less of an issue if he projected better as a third line player at the next level, but I am not entirely satisfied of that yet. A team will likely draft him in the third round, maybe fourth, and I think will see him as a bit of a project, but it is always easier to be patient with those types of players if the effort level is already there.

19) Marcus Foligno

I have mixed feelings on Marcus Foligno, particularly because it is hard not to compare him to his brother. On the one hand he was generally unimpressive when I saw him this year, no matter the game or venue. He has good size, great height and shows good effort and board work, but he also showed little pure offensive talent and his skating concerned me. His stride is stiff, his agility is below average and he lacks acceleration at this point in time. On the other hand, I also appreciate that he is a very young player, almost a year younger than Nick was when he was drafted, and that he could very well improve in a lot of ways like his brother has. Nick has steadily improved his goal scoring, stickhandling and particularly skating since his rookie season in the OHL, and if Marcus can get on a similar curve, he could be a steal for whoever takes him. I do not really think he has the scoring line upside some believe Nick has, but I do think his bloodlines and raw physical skills make him an intriguing prospect.

20) Kyle Clifford

I think the U18s did a lot for Kyle Clifford’s stock heading in to the draft. At that tournament he thrived as a bang and crash role player, and showed enough to suggest he has the potential to play that role at the NHL level. He has good size, goes to the net, is a strong forechecker and throws his weight around with appreciable enthusiasm. Moreover, he seems to be on an upward development swing. Although his 16 goals this year were not stellar, when compared to his one single goal as a rookie last year, it is more notable. I do not see much in the way of skill or creativity that will translate to the NHL level, but size and grit often goes higher in NHL drafts than one would expect. He could very well go higher than a few players above him, but to me he is simply a good potential role player, a bit like Cody Bass a few years ago.

Honourable Mention:

Phil Varone : I was tempted to include Varone in my top 20, and even considered having him a fair bit higher. His impressive playoff performance should have raised his stock, although Central Scouting dropped him in their final rankings. Varone is a good offensive player who should be a very successful OHLer, but there is fair reason to doubt how he projects at the next level.

Tyler Randell : Part of me thinks Randell could end up being a late round find for some team. He has some offensive skill, decent size and was more productive when given more ice time in Kitchener, so it is entirely possible he breaks out when Kitchener takes off as anticipated next year. That being said, when I saw him he seemed intriguing and frustrating at best, lazy and undisciplined at worst.

William Wallen : Everybody has guys they cheer for a bit more just because they hope their support will help that underdog succeed, and few players fit that mold better than Wallen. Not only did he almost die this year, a near-tragedy detailed on this blog already, but Wallen as an undersized waterbug type of player, already has obstacles to overcome as a hockey player. I like Wallen’s skill level, tenacity, and technically-strong skating stride. With more lower body strength and improved skating he could be a steal.

Michael Zador : Hockey Canada can operate in strange ways, and they seemed to do just that picking Zador as the starter for the U18s and ignoring Stajcer altogether. The result for Zador was mixed, in my opinion. He was praised for putting up good numbers and at times making big stops, but I thought he looked shaky throughout the tournament. Some goals were weak and some of the big stops more impressive than they had to be. Jake Allen he is not, but he could go quite high on draft day because of the U18s regardless.

SK

On Scouting ...

2009-04-10T17:35:00.004-04:00

Most "scouting services" don't know what they're doing

You know the ones I mean. Most of those that sell their product for money, especially the ones written by former HF-ers (Ed: HFBoards.com members).

Writing a good scouting report is not random - there has to be some methodology to it. Most folks don't get this. I'm sick and tried of reading crappy scouting reports, written by people who think they've become experts after lurking on hf for a couple of years.

I will tell you what a good scouting report is and there are basically two kinds (it can be broken down further, of course). The worst scouting reports can be exposed for being a confused jumble of the two or in worst cases neither. Some are bad, because they take one side and do an incompetent job.

Scouting report type #1: Ontology.

Folks who see players and write up these kinds of reports believe that they can get across a lot of information about a player simply by breaking down his game into a list of traits. Skating, shooting, vision, stickhandling, etc. It's a belief that scouting is mechanistic, and so are essentially people (in this case, hockey players). This sees an athlete as an abstraction that can be exposed, dissected and studied.

Scouting report type #2: Phenomenology.

This is the most difficult kind of a scouting report to master. It can be done very badly, but in best cases extremely well and those that are really well written are fun to read and personal. The scout in this case doesn't believe that a human being is a mere collage of particulars - rather, every single trait in a player is supported by another. An athlete in this case must be assessed holistically. Not only this, but the scouting report itself has to be written in terms of models and situations. Saying that a player is a good skater with excellent quickness is insufficient, because this doesn't illustrate a situation. A situation illustrates a scenario, in which phenomena occur that can be tied in to the discussed player in which a player performs a certain way holistically in relation to the ongoing play in relation to recalled (by scout) plays. The task of the scout is to abstract the situation and assess it from a personal standpoint. "Here's what the player did, here's how he did it and here's what I think about it. Here's what I can compare it to." "I think it worked because...", "I don't think it worked because..." Often the judgement is made through sheer intuition. The clever scout will incorporate his own experiences and recollections and compare the situation to other situations that he's seen, thus clariying his opinion on the player.

This kind of scouting is "implicate" - it functions on the belief that no player can be properly analyzed or understood without implicating the viewing scout's keen knowledge of hockey. By implicating himself into the scouting report, the scout also implicates the reader to identify and engage with what is written. Insight is fluid. Insight is dialogical. It should paint a picture in such a way that everyone who is exposed to it can react and creatively link the player and situation to other players and situations.

An example of pure scouting ontology is Central Scouting. So much so that it is almost exceedingly dry. Reading a CSS report, one cannot get any kind of handle on a player, because the blurb will merely list one trait after another. The writing isn't personal, the writing barely refers to hockey beyond the mechanistic, the writing often runs out of effective words to get its point across.

The best kind of ontology in scouting is extremely in-depth. I've seen this, but mostly in respect to tennis. I haven't seen a lot of good scouting of this kind in hockey. One could write a whole page about a player's wrist shot or first step, or whatever. Often it's quite fun to read and can be rewarding. In some cases the writing will flow towards analogy and thus become both phenomenology and narratology (the latter, because of the recall of stories; eg. "player x's backhand on this particular play reminded me of the time Bobby Orr scored a wrap-around goal on a backhand").

Close to pure phenomenology of scouting I think is redline report. I haven't read anything of theirs since about 2005, but from what I recall they're low on exact detail and high on 'the situation' stuff. They'll tell you what happened, when and how and how they felt about it. They'll tell you what it may mean in the long run. This kind of writing is hard to do, but they're good at it. It's personal. It doesn't matter whether it offends. Actually, it's better when it does. Sometimes it's too short - the worst offenses is when black humour replaces true insight, thus turning the player into a stereotype to caricature (eg. the sparkplug, the idiot, the dirty rotten bastard).

The important thing is that these two services at least know the difference. Central Scouting takes their explicit approach, because they feel they have to be objective. Or at least they have to appear objective. Writing their reports must be like writing for public service. It is nuanced nothing.

NHL scouts, the ones that do the real stuff, do both. I'm sure that every team has its own methodology, but eventually it breaks down into two things. You have to establish some basics first and that means separating the strengths from the weaknesses. These are, first of foremost, mechanistic. Bad skater? You may as well stop scouting the guy.

But if you keep scouting the guy, the rest of the work involves really heavy abstract work. You have to look for situations, illustrate them for the purposes of visualizing them later. This includes countless and countless examples of how the player handles himself in numerous situations and amounts to a very personal profile. And people are complex, often in ways they don't even themselves understand. Scouts want to know these kids better than these kids know themselves. And very often this requires quite a bit of intuition. Not luck, mind you. Intuition implicates personal experience. Intuition is when you have really studied the person.

So please do yourself a favour. Don't buy cheap shit like FC or whatever other stuff that is written by children with very little ideas or insights. You will know it when you see it - just read the reports and ask yourselves if they're written by a human being who truly cares about the player, or just some guy spewing cliches that have been said countless times.

Reposted, with permission, from a HockeyBroads.com post by Dr_Chimera.

M. Karlsson named to AHL All-Rookie Team

2009-04-06T00:36:00.006-04:00

Senators defensive prospect Matthias Karlsson was named to the 2008-09 AHL All-Rookie roster, adding to the young Swedish blueliner's list of accomplishments this season. Karlsson was also named to the AHL All-Star game in January, and has recorded 50 points through 70 games this season with the Binghamton Senators.

James Mirtle claims that Karlsson "seems a lock to start in Ottawa next season", though this opinion won't be confirmed by many observers with closer ties to the Senators; even with his surprising performance in the AHL, Matthias Karlsson still stands about 9th on the Senators depth chart and will have to offer an outstanding training camp, and perhaps hope for a trade or two, in order to see regular NHL time by next year. There have also been whispers that Karlsson might be returning to Sweden next season, though the validity of these claims are entirely unknown.

It could also be possible that Mirtle was inadvertently confusing Matthias with the other young Swedish defenseman, Erik Karlsson, whose name has also been penned into Ottawa's 09-10 lineup by some.

No other Binghamton Senators made the all-star teams but it isn't absurd to suggest Brian Elliott was in solid contention for a first all-star team slot before being called up to Ottawa in early January.

Prospect Update

2009-03-28T12:23:00.002-04:00

SilverSevenSens has a prospect update.

It covers Erik Condra (NCAA), Louie Caporusso (NCAA), Patrick Wiercioch (NCAA), Craig Schira (WHL), and Jim O'Brien (WHL).

Roundtable #1 - Erik Karlsson in 2009-10, Part I

2009-03-06T23:37:00.011-05:00

A selection of Ottawa Prospector contributors participated in this inaugural roundtable. To participate in future discussions or suggest topics of debate, please visit the Ottawa Senators Forum at Hockey Broads.

The background: Senators 2008 first round draft pick Erik Karlsson has shown plenty of positive signs in the months since his selection, finding a regular role with the Frolunda Indians of the Swedish Elite League and winning top defenseman honours at the 2009 World Juniors. He has a tremendous offensive skillset and a mature understanding of the game which belies his age. Still, his lack of size and strength might remain impediments to quick ascension in the pro ranks. While the Senators have made some moves to address their puck-moving needs on the backend, Karlsson seems an ideal remedy for many of their blueline woes and there are indications the franchise might want to speed his development by bringing him into Ottawa next fall.

The debate: How should the Ottawa Senators handle Erik Karlsson next season and going forward? Allow him become a confident star player in the SEL, gaining valuable experience? Convince him to come to Binghamton to focus mostly on training and conditioning elements? Bring him into Ottawa as a PP specialist, with access to world-class training regimen and mentors? Something else altogether? Consider these questions and more and share your thoughts in a roundtable format.

This part of the roundtable addresses the most popular conclusion, that Karlsson is not yet ready for the NHL and should remain in the SEL for at least one more season. Different conclusions will be broached in ensuing posts.

Joe Sakic:
In my mind the best path for development for Erik is to stay another season in the SEL (assuming he doesn't come in and flat out wow every one next year - like M.E. Vlasic did in SJ).

I see patience as the one common denominator that all strong drafting NHL clubs have, especially those with contributing youngsters. For Erik Karlsson, I think this should be the team’s approach. There's no doubting that from a skills perspective he's got enough to at least be a number 2 in the NHL. For Erik, he really needs to develop that physical strength that any dman needs to be able withstand the rigours of an 82+ game schedule as well as the mental strength that goes along with being a top two guy on any NHL club. Because Murray has done a fairly decent job of building some organizational depth on the backend (adding Kuba, Picard, and Campoli) I think the Sens can afford to be patient with Erik and let him develop that physical and mental strength so that when he dawns a Sens uniform he's really ready to be an impact player.

Giving Erik another year in Frolunda, where he becomes a go to guy on the back end playing key minutes in key situations would absolutely be, in my mind, the right thing to do. This will allow him to get experience being a number one/two type dman on a team where winning is expected, in a city where hockey is king. Couple the added responsibilities on the ice, with a physical regimen that can be tracked and monitored by the big club, Erik can continue to mature physically in a far less physically demanding league (the SEL vs. AHL). By affording him that added year of development, Erik could then come to NA when he's 20 and be in a better position to succeed both physically and mentally because of the added experience - assuming he continues his development path, he'd be that much more confident in himself and his game and be able to translate that confidence into results. I'd then let him ply his trade in Bingo for a year (again assuming the club feels he's not there yet), where he'd be introduced to NA style hockey on a smaller ice surface. In Bingo, I'd have him on the ice on the PP, SH and in all key ES situations so that he can continue to learn and grow and adapt his game to fit the NA style. This would also give him another year to physically get stronger preparing him for the NHL. If it's obvious that he's too advanced for the A I'd bring him up BUT not before at the very least the All Star break.

Erik's a great talent and I think if the organization can be patient with him and not rush him, he'll definitely be a difference maker for this team for years to come.

sensdiehard:
I hope we don’t rush him. He stills looks young. As Jacques Martin might say, a boy still, not quite ready for a man’s league. When he is clearly ready to take a lead role on this team, he should come over.

As Holland was quoted to suggest recently, and as the old Montreal dynasty teams used to always live by, prospects develop as long as they need in the minors and don’t come up until they are ready. That has been the hallmark of excellent organizations in the past. Hopefully we have the luxury of doing it properly too.

zamboner:
In ideal conditions, Karlsson would get another year with Frolunda, but with twice as much ice-time. He started the year strongly, wowing us with his game against the Senators in the pre-season. Following that, he was hot and cold with Frolunda, and was prone to bad defensive play. A huge WJC helped put any fears to rest, but Karlsson remains low on the club team's depth list.

Karlsson has the skill, but lacks the strength and size to step onto an NHL rink. He'd probably be a Brendan Bell right now. Think about it, Bell would have been the MVP of the WJC had he been there. I don't know why people think Karlsson would step in and immediately be a real player in the NHL.

However, the situation the Senators find themselves in is NOT ideal. They're in desperate need of a play-maker on the back-end, as the defensive corps is skilled, but lacks any kind of offensive creativity. Karlsson has a mind unlike any other defensemen within the Senators organization, and Murray will likely find that mere fact very appealing. He's got to find a way to improve the blue-line without trading away any more forward depth.

So, he should play another year in the SEL (or AHL, but I doubt it), but will likely be given a big chance to make the team next year.

Pothier:
The best thing for Karlsson's develop at this point, is to let him have one more year with Frolunda. Let him dominate the SEL, while getting bigger and stronger, taking on a larger role on the team, and maybe even working on becoming a better all around defenseman.

Keeping him with Frolunda pretty much guarantees that Karlsson will be playing, and most likely being the captain for the 2010 Sweden WJC team that will take to the ice in December. He had an outstanding tournament this year, so it's scary to think that he could do it all over again, with the chance of being even more dominant this time around, and maybe even win the Gold with Team Sweden.

The Ottawa Senators already have 8 defensemen under contract for next season; this really does not leave any room for Karlsson, especially since 2005 draft selection Brian Lee, another offensive defenseman, is still waiting for a real shot, so one would assume next year is Lee's shot. I don't feel Erik would benefit from being a 7th defenseman/PP specialist as much as he would from another year overseas.

In conclusion, I really feel Erik would truly benefit from another year in the SEL with the Indians, and another World Junior Championship. One would assume that with only 2 defensemen under contract for the 2010/11 season, this will be Karlsson's time to shine in a Senators uniform.

mayoradamwest:
Karlsson looks like he's going to be something special. It'd be nice if we could get him over for the preseason, camp and such but I'd be really hesitant to play him next year. There's no reason to rush the development of what could be the best prospect the organization has produced in years. Unfortunately, we need to have some patience with him. We could just get Mattias Karlsson to change his name to Eric to energize and confuse the fan base. Unless E. Karlsson adds serious muscle in the offseason I can't see how he'd be a better option than what we have already. Even if he is better overall (or is going to be) than most of our D corps, he doesn't need to be thrown into a team with a ton of question marks, especially considering the fan expectations that would be heaped on him by the intellectually stimulating Ottawa sports media. Give him another year, let him play out his time in Sweden, and then bring him over when he's ready to contribute immediately.If Karlsson comes over he could be a PP specialist over here but he wouldn't be able to play a full game and may find it more difficult to round out aspects of his game. If Karlsson stays and commits to his Swedish team, Frolunda, he will get the highest amount of minutes he needs to ply his trade and learn the game. Of course Ottawa's lack lustre back end seems to suggest that we should rush him over and get any help we can use back there.

There is also a third option of signing Karlsson to a contract over here getting him into some game time and then loaning him back to Frolunda if or when it doesn't work out. This has been met with some success in some other Swedish prospects in the game today as well, and is something that Karlsson is willing to entertain. I think when all is said and done I would let Karlsson play another year in Sweden. It will allow him to mature his game, keeps a good working relationship with a Swedish team that could be valuable in the future, and to me seems like the best option. We shouldn't allow our impatience to rush him into the game and possible harm his development.

sensens:
I'm not surprised most of the comments have been fairly consistent, as I don't think it's much of a debate - it makes absolutely no sense to jeopardize the development of the team's most important prospect in years. Even if he was rushed, it would be borderline delusional for the team to assume that his immediate impact would necessarily exceed what is already provided by Picard, Lee, and Campoli. If the team is in such a dire spot that this move is considered its best option, I think that would be the final indication that far more serious moves are immediately necessary.

discostu:
I think the decision on Karlsson is pretty simple and straightforward. He's obviously a very talented young defenceman, with a great head for the game. But, he is undersized, and, needs to get bigger before he should be here. Another year in the SEL seems like a no-brainer. He needs time to put on some size, and, to adapt to playing with that size. He could theoretically bulk up this summer, but, then, he'd be adapting to a new country and new league, while he's also adapting his game that goes with that added size.

Let him grow in the SEL for at least another year. He'll get the ice time opportunities there. Have Sens trainers track his progress, and see where he is a year from now.

Hossa:
Personally I am not satisfied in the least that Erik Karlsson is ready for the NHL next year, nor do I believe that at this point in time it's in his or the team's best interest to force the issue. The reasons for this are numerous, and some have been outlined by others.

For one, with several third pairing blueliners under contract heading in to camp, I do not feel desperate to play Karlsson next year. Brian Lee, Chris Campoli and Alexandre Picard are all young, looking to establish themselves, and have varying degrees of offensive upside. Moreover, they are important assets for the club, whether because they were a high draft pick (Lee) or the key component in a trade that saw a major asset go the other way (Picard and Campoli). It's important for the organization to gain a better perspective of what these players are capable of in the immediate future and whether or not they should be in the long-term plans of the club alongside Karlsson. The fact that all three are restricted free agents in the summer of 2010 only adds to the necessity of answering those questions next year. At that point Bryan Murray and company will be in a position to evaluate which, if any, of those blueliners are part of the solution, and the contracts will be structured as such. It's important to stagger contracts and receive contributions from young players in a proper manner.

I am also not entirely sure if I see a fit for somebody to play with Karlsson next year. Although I see the value in putting Karlsson with a veteran like Jason Smith, my biggest hesitation is that they are both right-handed shots. With some players that would not be a big deal, but Jason Smith's already porous puck-handling is only worse in the rare opportunity that he has to move the puck from his wrong side. The other option would be for Karlsson to play on his opposite side, but that is not ideal for a young blueliner, particularly one whose game is predicated on handling the puck and jumping in from the back-end. If we do decide that Jason Smith's hefty contract is worth retaining for another season, then I believe he should be utilized to complement Picard or Campoli, both left-handed shots with offensive ability but significant room for improvement defensively. In short, there are circumstantial reasons to hold off on putting Karlsson in to the line-up.

Even if the Senators' blueline was shaping up differently, I would not be convinced that Karlsson is ready for the NHL quite yet. It is well established that he will never be a big player, and his lower body is not built in a manner which leaves him much room for growth in the strength department. He will never be built like a fire hydrant, propelled by two tree trunks for legs, like several players below 6'0" such as Brian Rafalski or Martin St. Louis. What Karlsson will do is use his sense of timing, intelligence and awareness to play defensively, but he has not consistently been able to do so this year in the Swedish Elite League. He is far too important to this organization to rush his development and rob him of the necessary time to develop as a complete player. Playing in the SEL for another full season would allow him the opportunity to play against men and professionals, and grow to be a complete player at that level. Inevitably he will need some time to adjust at the NHL level, but that does not in any way mean his development needs to be so heavily dependent on playing against the best players in the world in Ottawa.

What I would do though is try hard to get Karlsson signed as soon as possible. Ideally I would bring him over for rookie camp and training camp, on the agreement that he will return to his club team in Sweden for the balance of the season. What this would allow the Senators is a modicum of control over his season though, because this plan only has merit if Karlsson's season in Sweden goes as planned. In order to develop in that league, he needs consistent ice time and a good situation, and with a contract signed, Ottawa would have a role to play should things go awry. On the chance that his season does not go as well as hoped, that would leave the Senators with options in terms of changing course.

This is what the Flames were able to do by sending Mikael Backlund to the Kelowna Rockets of the WHL in the middle of this year. After an impressive turn at the World Junior Championships, the Flames decided that they were not satisfied with his development in Sweden. Instead, they gave Backlund one game in the NHL and then reassigned him to a good Kelowna team for the balance of the season, where he has put up a point per game and played alongside other top prospects like Jamie Benn, Colin Long and Tyler Myers. Obviously it remains to be seen how well this works out for Backlund in the end, but the important thing for Calgary was that those first two seasons after a player is drafted are incomparably important for a player's development. Ensuring that Karlsson's season next year does not veer off track is essential, and should be the top priority at this point in time.

Roundtable #1 - Erik Karlsson in 2009-10, Part II

2009-03-06T23:36:00.002-05:00

This part of the roundtable addresses the undecided - those who feel Karlsson's status next year is heavily dependent on his off-season training progress, on the Senators defensive depth next season, and multiple other factors such as whether Karlsson is even interested in leaving Sweden yet. The viewpoints are further outlined:

RTWAP:
There are some basic principles that seem to be shared by good organizations. Don't rush the prospect. Don't stall the prospect without ice time or opportunity. Don't let the prospect stay in a poor development environment.

It is difficult to know how these basic principles will be applied because any decisions the Senators make are going to be based on information and judgments that we're not privy to. But it might be helpful to identify some of those underlying factors.

Is Erik developing properly in the SEL? This is mainly a question about ice time, opportunity to play in the right situations, physical training, confidence building and fundamental approach to the game. If I had to guess, I'd say that Frolunda is doing fine in this regard.

Could Erik handle a jump directly this summer to the NHL? Are his skills sufficiently developed? Has his defensive game matured enough that he won't get buried as a PP specialist with little ES opportunity? Has his strength improved enough? Can he handle the transition to NA rink size and game style?

Does Erik want to come to the NHL next season? This one is hard to say. I think he's expressed a preference for playing a couple years in the SEL, but that was last fall. And he may just have been careful. It could be embarrassing if he publicly set a goal of making the NHL next season and then wasn't even invited over. Much better to state publicly that he'll stay in the SEL until he's ready and then wait for the team to ask him to come over. It's also a better mental approach. Just focus on the team he's on and the games in front of him, not the larger goal. I think that unless the Senators make a strong pitch to bring him over this summer, he will be happy to spend another season with Frolunda. Another factor is that he would probably prefer to avoid a full season in the AHL. If playing his 20th year in the SEL instead of the AHL, provides almost the same benefit and he spends most of his next season as an NHLer then there wouldn't be much benefit to spending a season on the buses with Binghamton.

Will the Senators have room? Pierre McGuire stated on the Team1200 on March 5th that the team is not done with their defense and will continue to make changes this summer. As it currently stands, there are 3 young defensemen with offensive skill in Campoli, Lee, and Picard, with Kuba providing veteran presence. Given that management has identified all of these players as bona fide NHLers, and the fact that the team has 3 defensive veteran D-men, it would be hard to imagine the team slotting Karlsson into the lineup as a #8, or even a #7 defenseman. But if the team is able to sign or acquire a true #1 then players like Smith and Volchenkov might leave to free up salary. Given a situation like that, Karlsson could find himself sharing #6/#7 duties with Alex Picard.

SensGuy:
Is it possible to withhold my decision until after the off-season? Because to me, the only thing holding Karlsson back from playing in the NHL is his size. If he's able to put on a decent amount of weight this summer, then I believe he could play at the NHL level. Would that be the best thing for his development? Who knows, but I think he has the skills and confidence to play in the NHL, but he doesn't have the size. I don't think he'll be getting any bigger playing in Sweden and against Swedish players, so if he puts on some muscle this summer, I have no issue bringing him over.

That leads to the question, do we even have room for him? Murray is going to have to get rid of some dead weight this summer, mainly in Smith, Schubert and possibly Picard, otherwise Karlsson won't get the playing time he needs.

Emo:
I'm a firm believer in putting players in a position to succeed, a position where their skills are maximized. Ottawa should give him every opportunity to excel next season in training camp. Play him in situations you want him to dominate years form now. Play him with high-level talent. If he blows you away, keep him and keep pushing him and teaching him all the while putting him in the best position to succeed.

I don't expect him to blow us away and earn a spot next year, but I think handling him how I suggested will be the most beneficial. This is the first elite-talent we've had in a while and I hope we maximize it. Put him in a real position to succeed and when he likely does not make the team, he should have a clear idea of what's expected of him and how to get there.

How he'll handle physical play at his current size is a legit concern. If we don't want him in the NHL next season due to size, do we really want him in the AHL which is rougher and more physical league than the NHL? I'd rather he not go through another season in Sweden where he's the sixth or seventh d-man, but if he's going to get primo minutes in that league, then I think it's probably the best place for him. I would hope that the Sens will tailor a plan for him to gain size; one that he can stick to while playing so far away from Ottawa.

DaveMatthew:
If he comes to the rookie and regular camps and proceeds to wow everyone ala Martin Havlat in 2000, I'd put him on the team.

I wouldn't do it simply because we have a current need in that role. No sense screwing up one of our most promising prospects in years when we have Picard, Smith and M. Karlsson all capable of filling the #6 role. Maybe they won't be as skilled, but E. Karlsson won't make or break this team next year anyways.

A further position, though endorsed by few, considers placing him in the AHL next season, primarily to address his poor strength:

Ricard_Persson:
Clay Aiken is better built than Brian Lee, and Lee takes a beating and gets bounced around this year. Lee is bigger and stronger and quite a few years older than Karlsson.

I would say that Karlsson in the NHL next year is a pipe dream. I can't see him being ready, and think a year in the AHL would do him wonders.

Senfanman88:
Erik Karlsson is in a very unique situation. There's many ways to go with him and they all have their pros and cons.

Letting him stay in the SEL could do a variety of things in itself. He could take over and be a mega-star, build his confidence and refine his skill set. A downside to this is that if he doesn't dominate, or his skill doesn't translate perfectly, his confidence could take a nose dive and the experiment could end before it started. Erik, to me, seems like the kind of guy who knows he is great and if he isn't as great as he feels (relative to NHLers or even SELers) it could be bad.

The AHL is the next idea. This gives him a shot at NHL speed and conditioning (82+ games) and would be great to develop the areas he is lacking in, such as strength and grit. The overall skill in the AHL is close to the SEL but Erik will be adjusting and the confidence factor will be buffered as he shouldn't be expecting to be great in a new league with a new style. An additional upside is the chance to play in the NHL if he's deserving or the big Sens have injuries. The downside is that he gets less money and is far from home, but he'll have to make that change sooner or later.

Straight to the NHL would be trial by fire. I'd be wary to send the Sens best prospect in years straight into the NHL like that, especially if he isn't big enough. This could be the ultimate waste if he gets beat down consistently while seeing minimal ice time. However, with smart coaching and smart utilization (PP and 3rd pairing) he could really shine at the biggest level and that would go very far.

Personally, for the team, the AHL would be best as it combines the best of the SEL and NHL opportunities. I can not blame Erik if he doesn't want to go there as he would get less money and be far from home. I really hope he comes over this summer and trains with guys like Fisher, Bass and/or Neil (if he is here) and bulks up like Zubov did. I hope that in doing this, he'd grow to crave Ottawa and accept the AHL due to the chance to get called up and make his mark.

That being said, a guy like Erik, with his natural talent and strong mental game will succeed regardless, if he wants it. When and how he will succeed depends on how he is handled next season but long term it shouldn't be the deciding factor of his NHL success.

Roundtable #1 - Erik Karlsson in 2009-10, Part III

2009-03-06T23:04:00.000-05:00

A final argument regarding Erik Karlsson is mostly made by Devil's advocates. Most do not believe Karlsson should be rushed into the NHL, but here are the arguments presented in favour of such a development:

Gord Langton:
With the state of the D can we afford to not have Karlsson here next year?

Yeah, he's a little undersized but his game is NHL caliber. He's a better passer than any of our current players and unless Murray manages to hit a home run with a UFA, we're going to need somebody like Karlsson to intelligently run the powerplay.
Kuba is alright, but his routine is pretty predictable. If you ever want to try a drinking game on the Sens PP then take a shot every time Kuba does the return pass maneuver. (Please don't actually try this if you want to make it through a 60 minute game. It'd be like trying to drink to swearing in Deadwood.)

Picard seems every bit the 7th dman and though he should get better in the offseason (should being the main word there) he's not the solution on the powerplay, or the breakout and let's be honest with outselves; if he was a star we would get so sick of the Jean-Luc jokes that we'd boo him out of town fast. Actually it's Ottawa, they might like the fact they get the joke. Hmm.... I'll leave that one up to the philosophers.

Campoli looks like he's going to to be a decent player for us, but he's a future number 3 guy at best. Unless he improves a massive amount over the summer, I could still see Karlsson being the better player.

Bell.... I'm just kidding.

Other than that with Jason Smith, Phillips and A-train our D isn't exactly fear inducing. A lot of teams left out points open this season because they knew they couldn't do anything with it but shoot it into some pads, high and wide, or pass it around the perimeter. We have nobody in the system who can make teams respect our D offensively the way Karlsson should be able to.

This is the "new" NHL remember. Look around the league at the players that are cracking lineups and making a major impact. With the clutching and grabbing gone and an emphasis on skill, young players can thrive right off the bat. Sure some struggles are to be expected, but with a guy this talented how can you not put him in the lineup? It's Murray's job to ice the best roster possible and if he's going to leave the best player off the roster well then I'm afraid he's simply missing the boat.

Doughty in LA showed that a young defender can step in and in my opinon Karlsson is already better than him. Pair E-Karl up with Volchenkov or Smith so they can deliver some pain if anybody takes liberties on him.

Yeah, Karlsson is going to be a bit small still but if he works hard this offseason there is nothing stopping him from making major steps forward in his game. Watching him in the World Jr's, he certainly didn't shy away from contact and even had a bit of a nasty streak. With some muscle backing him up what's preventing him from playing in the NHL? He's got the skills, the attitude, and a name that makes you think of the Simpsons. Hopefully Murray will draft a Leonard as his partner this year.

The UFA crop is weak, we don't have anyone else to do it... Karlsson simply has to be an option if he performs well in camp. He said he wanted to play 2 more years in the SEL at the draft but I would bet dollars to doughnuts that if it came down to it.... If Karlsson had a slot on this team shown to him by Murray and a contract on the table, I'd think the bigger stage and the bigger dollars might change his mind quickly. Besides, he was probably just trying to be cautious. He seems like a competitive SOB and why wouldn't he want to play at the highest level? If he has the ability and I think he does, it would be a disservice to Sens fans everywhere to let this guy rot in Sweden. He's a cost effective, talented solution. Guys like him are the key to success as we've seen this year what not having enough talent coming up can do.

I.M. Fletcher:
One reason I think it would be positive to bring him over for next year is if we are paying Smith 2.6mil for leadership, it would seem that would only make sense if he was truly being utilized. Sure he has Picard and Lee to be building into now, but for someone like Karlsson whose game is predicated on confidence, you want to do everything in your power to make sure you have strong leadership guiding that confidence towards the team opposed to himself.

I am not going to begin to assume to know what Karlsson needs, but for someone so confident at such a young age, almost similar to Spezza, I would like to insulate him as much as possible so his decision making is guided through his first few year. Similarly to how Redden had Pitlick as his partner, and we got to see the development of Redden and it actually got alot more out of ol' Lance.

Just a thought. I know there are many reasons to want to protect him from a negative experience, but a year from now, he could be learning defense from Phillips Lee Picard and Campoli. Not thats a negative group, but outside of Phillips, I dont know if young guys can provide the amount of accountability that an older player can.

Maybe I am just trying to justify having Smith being paid so much for another year. If he is helping in proper development of Lee Picard and Karlsson, I think long term his 2 awful contract years would be more than worth it.

Counterpoint to I.M. Fletcher by sensens:
I do agree that having Smith paired with Karlsson would be the way to introduce him to the NHL, but he's still 18 at this point (19 by training camp) and with limited experience in even the SEL I still wonder to what extent that would really be a positive move. Not to mention that it would be difficult enough of a transition to make without simultaneously putting the weight on him to be the team's best offensive defenceman, as some have suggested would make a case for bringing him over. And if he were paired with Smith, that would mean 3rd line minutes, which isn't exactly condusive to fulfilling a role as the team's top puck mover.

And this is really my criticism - it's one thing if Karlsson had blown away the SEL, came over at camp and impressed, and was a bonus to next year's roster - but to depend on that for the success of your season is pretty poor management. And what this team would need to improve on a scenario of Phillips, Volchenkov, Kuba, Campoli, Smith, Lee, and Picard, is not a 19yo prospect who finished tied for 6th on his team in defenceman scoring. Even a relatively successful year for Karlsson as a 19yo would be considered a failure by that requirement, which is patently unfair to him as a developing prospect.

For my money, that defence is just fine - particularly because the team is poised to take advantage of inexpensive contracts for all of Campoli, Lee, and Picard - precisely the players that Karlsson would be able to compensate for in a year or two when they are no longer as easily retainable. The far more pressing concern for me is the secondary scoring up front, which is now as depleted as it's ever been. Even if Comrie re-signed at $3M/yr, the team would be pushed almost to the cap limit to just achieve that, which I would argue is a recipe for another underwhelming season. I suppose you could argue that rushing Karlsson could make one of those defencemen expendable and used as currency to find an inexpensive young forward to flank the offense, but I just think that Karlsson potentially represents a substantial part of the team's future. Playing games with his development is just not the way I would go.

Scouting Report: Brian Lee

2009-03-04T17:04:00.004-05:00

by Evan Rawal.

From the second Brian Lee was drafted, people have questioned his selection. Taken 9th overall in 2005, with the Sens earliest draft pick in 4 years, Lee was an unknown to many in Ottawa at the time. Not only did he have the pressure of being selected before Canadian junior stars Marc Staal and Luc Bourdon, but he had to watch then GM John Muckler declare that he better be ready for the NHL in two years. Anyone that looked at Lee when he was drafted probably considered him crazy.

Lee's draft year put him on the map. While he was a high school hockey star in Minnesota, very few knew about him. That was, until Team USA surprised everyone and selected the tall and lanky Lee to their World Junior team, ahead of the highly touted Jack Johnson. Although Lee rarely saw ice time during the tournament, it put him on the map, and afterwards, went back to the Minnesota high school league and was named Mr. Hockey as the top senior high school hockey player in the state. Over the course of his draft year, he also played 12 games in the USHL, putting up just 3 assists, but adding 5 points in 4 playoff games.

Lee's post-draft development has not been ideal for a top 10 selection, but the strides are there. The most noticeable flaw from just looking at Lee when he was drafted was his lack of strength. While listed at 6'2"/6'3", Lee weighed in the 170's when he was drafted, and looked even smaller. 4 years after being selected, he now sits at 203 pounds, and while he is getting stronger, it will be a few more years before we see the finished product with Lee.

The University of North Dakota was Brian Lee's destination after being drafted. While Lee was labeled as an offensive defenseman from the moment he was drafted, his all-around game developed probably a bit faster than people expected, and remains the underrated part in his game. Even as a freshman, Lee was playing big time minutes in all situations, including 1st unit penalty kill time. While his offensive numbers his first year weren't staggering, for a freshman campaign, it was considered a great success. It was his sophomore year of college that put some doubt in the minds of many Sens fans, who were skeptical to begin with. His offensive numbers didn't progress as much as many had hoped, and his all-around game appeared to have taken a hit. Both of these years, he played for Team USA in the World Junior Championships, but while his role was bigger than the first time, he was still stuck behind the far more hyped Erik Johnson and Jack Johnson and didn't get a ton of ice time.

It was the summer after his sophomore campaign when he surprised many and signed a professional contract with Ottawa. Would John Muckler's forecast of Lee being ready in two years actually come true?

Well, it didn't, but it did come as a pleasant surprise to Sens fans that Lee was eager to accelerate his development. While he went into training camp with very slim chances of actually making the team, he did impress and show the skills, and was sent to AHL affiliate Binghamton to start the year. Perhaps benefitting Lee the most in the AHL was playing with veteran Lawrence Nycholat, and Lee flourished his first year down there, being named to the AHL All-Star team and registering 25 points in 55 games and playing in every situation.

When an ankle injury sidelined Lee for over a month in February, many figured his chance to make a jump to Ottawa very small. However, after playing only 1 AHL game after missing a month plus of hockey, Lee got the call when Wade Redden was injured. Lee didn't waste any time impressing the brass. His first game was stellar, displaying perfect one on one defensive ability, an ability to jump into the rush, and even playing a little goalie by saving a sure goal. The next day, Murray declared Lee an NHL'er, and he finished the year off in Ottawa, playing 6 regular season games and 4 playoff games while racking up 1 assist.

Lee came into this season with high expectations, but with new coach Craig Hartsburg unwilling to give him a lot of chances, or let him play with the partner he excelled with at the end of the previous year (Chris Phillips), Lee struggled, and was sent down abruptly after only 5 games. He went to Binghamton, and if you listen to their fans, didn't exactly look good. Many wondered if he would get another chance this season, but when injuries to Filip Kuba and Anton Volchenkov hit the Sens, Lee was recalled, and given a bigger role. He excelled. Playing 20+ minutes a night, often leading the team in ice time, Lee looked far more confident and was initiating instead of reacting. Because of this, he looks to have carved himself a full-time NHL gig. While he's currently in the AHL, it doesn't appear to be long-term, as it was done to clear roster space and Lee was just a casualty because of his two-way contract. Expect to see Lee called up post-trade deadline and play big minutes for the Sens, with perhaps a playoff run with Binghamton at the end of the year for experience.

Following his selection in 2005, John Muckler claimed that the Sens had Lee rated as the 5th best player in the draft. He doesn't have skills that jump out at you, but you can see why he was so highly thought of by the Sens. His hockey sense is through the roof, and is perhaps his greatest attribute. He reads the play well, he understands what to do with and without the puck, and is just an incredibly intelligent player in general. For a big guy at 6'3", Lee is a terrific skater, perhaps the best skating defenseman the Sens currently have (although he doesn't have much competition). He's a real good puck mover, and is starting to skate more with the puck, which will only help make him more dangerous. On the other hand, he still has his flaws, the most obvious being his lack of strength. He still gets outmuscled in the corners, which isn't surprising at his age, but it will continue to improve. His lack of strength also limits his offensive game, as his shot is below average, at best. He'll need to continue to fill out in order to reach his full potential.

The future looks bright for Lee. At only 21, he's already shown he can play 20+ minutes a night in the NHL, and he will only continue to get better. He looks like a sure bet to be a top 4 blueliner in this league, but the question is, what is his top end potential? I personally believe he can be a top pairing guy. Probably not a #1 defenseman, but he has all the makings of a good #2. He's got the size, he's got the skating ability, he can move the puck, he can jump into the play, and he can play in any situation. If he fills out even more, you've added yet another element to his game.

Nearly 4 years after his draft, Sens fans have good reason to be excited about the 9th pick in the 2005 draft.

Scouting Report: Jesse Winchester

2009-03-02T10:58:00.006-05:00

by Stephen McLean.

Almost a full season into his career, Jesse Winchester has yet to hit the anniversary mark whence most Sens fans learned who he was. He did not take the typical route to the NHL, going through … the Winchester Hawks of the Eastern Ontario Junior "B" Hockey League (one can only assume the team was named after him) the Cornwall Colts of the Central Junior Hockey League and then went to well known hockey factory Colgate University. The only award or recognition Jesse Winchester received on his way to the NHL was being named to the ECAC - Third All-Star Team for 2007-2008. Winchester was more of a defensive player even in college where he played an intelligent, responsible game. Despite putting up 33 points in 32 games for Colgate in 05-06, Winchester was signed March 24th 2008 for his defence, intelligence, and puck control abilities.

The 6'1, 215 pound native of Long Sault, Ontario was an unknown to most. He came without the hype of other college players such as Chris Kunitz, Dustin Penner and Blake Wheeler or last year's signing of Swedish forward Fabian Brunnstrom. Despite this lack of apparent pedigree, when Winchester came into camp last fall the organization thought highly of him. Uncomfirmed reports have suggested that many teams were in the running for Winchester. Murray signed Winchester to an entry level contract in the spring that expired a few months later, and also arranged for him to play a single game at the NHL level. Due to Winchester's 25th birthday in early October and some peculiarities of the NHL Collective Bargaining Agreement, that meant Wichester could be signed last summer to a one-way deal, and would have to go through waivers before being sent down to the AHL. Murray was confident enough of Winchester's potential to offer a one way contract and create a situation in which the Senators can't send him down without risking losing him on waivers. He started training camp on a line with Jason Spezza and Dany Heatley and while he didn't last on the top line, he has justified management's assessment and found himself a productive role for the Senators.

Winchester will never put up big numbers in the NHL, but where he will shine is along the boards. He plays an intelligent puck control game along the boards, skilled at putting the puck in his skates and angling toward the boards to roll off of a defenceman. While only a rookie, Winchester has shown flashes of potential which should see him have a long and successful NHL career. He broke into the Senators lineup without a problem, in a year with little competition in the forward ranks but has shown that he deserved the spot from the beginning. It is much easier to integrate a defensively responsible player and Winchester can be trusted to go out and not hurt the team. Solid in his own end, Winchester excels along the boards. He is very adept at laying the puck to an empty spot in the corner or behind the net to keep possession.

If he continues to improve he should be able to dominate play along the boards. He also has shown a willingness to battle much bigger and stronger opponents (some may remember him getting greeted by Chara in the corner, personally I thought he was a keeper the moment he got up from that collision. Winchester is a surprisingly physically player for his size, and his ability to deliver solid hits aids him with puck retrieval. Especially notable is his body control and anticipation when receiving a hit. More than a few players of similar size have bounced off of Winchester when attempting to hit him.

As a very smart hockey player, he is excellent at maintaining angles which is also why he is able to play physically strong game without spending a lot of time in the penalty box. For a “grinding” forward to have only 20 penalty minutes this far into the season speaks volumes about his intelligence and why he should be able to become a mainstay in Ottawa.

Winchester could use some added strength but his skating is NHL caliber and his ability to control play behind the opponents net, along the boards, and strong cycle game mean that he should be a relatively cheap contributor to the Senators for the next few years. His offensive skills need polishing (which should help keep his contract down), but it is pretty clear he will never be a potent offensive force, which may render him a permanent bottom 6 player. However, it is his ability to control the flow of the play which could potentially make him a dangerous setup man in the future. As Winchester has the ability to maintain possession for long periods of time below the opponents goal line, if teammates can get themselves to the front of the net and if the Winchester can hit them, we may see a patented J.W. Play develop over time if he improves manages to find and establish an office behind the net. If he never gets the pass from the boards completely down, he will at worst be a defensively responsible player who you can slot into almost any situation and is strong on the puck and body. Look for this intelligent man to eventually become a leader in the Senators dressing room, with consistently smart and hard working play.

Prospect Watch

2009-03-01T15:16:00.006-05:00

Graeme at 6th Sens has posted a Prospect Watch entry.

Two prospects in the Top 50 and three in the Top 100? Bonerific! Who cares if it doesn't include prospects already playing in the NHL (obviously Elliott was called up after it went to publication). Perhaps the only concern is how low Jim O'Brien has fallen on that list? Or maybe it's indicative for how strong management drafted last year.

Looks like the Senators have climbed all the way to mediocre in terms of prospect depth. Picking near the top of the draft this year, and the returns from departing players at the trade deadline should put the Senators solidly in the top 3rd going forward. I'd rather have a top team than top prospects, but if you can't have the first then the second is a step in the right direction.

Scouting Report: Brian Elliott

2009-02-28T04:01:00.000-05:00

by Peter Drake (with contributions from Amanda Murray)

2008-09 Binghamton Senators AHL 30GP 18W 2.31GAA 0.926sv% 2SO
2008-09 Ottawa Senators NHL 17GP 7W 2.84GAA 0.905sv%

Following a terrific first half of the season with the Ottawa Senators' AHL affiliate in Binghamton, Brian Elliott was recalled to the NHL in mid-January in attempt to kick-start a struggling hockey team. While Senators General Manager Bryan Murray alluded to plans for such a mid-season call-up on multiple occasions since the off-season, it was the young netminder's strong AHL play which made such a call up inevitable. Elliott won December Player of the Month honours, placed among the AHL's best goaltenders in every statistical category, and even earned a starting slot on the AHL All-Star team. Seventeen games into Brian Elliott's first extended stretch at the NHL level, it seems a reasonable time to evaluate his play up to this point, which has so far been a mixed blessing.

As with many good prospects, he excelled at the start and was the team's best player on some nights. He quickly gained the confidence and respect of his teammates. This was especially noticeable during new coach Cory Clouston's transition to an aggressive game, as there were more than a few instances where mistakes by forwards and defensemen lead to scoring chances that Elliott handled calmly and proficiently. While the Senators recent stretch of comparatively competent play has been most often attributed to Clouston's influence, the boost is similarly attributable to the arrival of Elliott.

Through this stretch his mental game and technical skills seemed up to the challenge. He has proven himself to be a mature, confident player who welcomes a challenge. He shows intense motivation and demands perfection of his own performance, and even after poor outings he relishes the opportunity to get back in the net. Primarily, he knows his weaknesses and works tirelessly to improve upon them. Prominent areas for improvement are rebound control, consistency, and anticipation, but the latter comes with learning the shooters at the NHL level. Given Elliott's reputation for focus and preparation, both of those issues should see improvement over time.

More recently, Elliott has given up a significant number of goals early in games, to the point where he has been replaced by the coach three times, in outings against Washington, Minnesota and Montreal. Although each goal in isolation has appeared to be justifiable, and mostly due to poor team play in front of him, the coach has challenged Elliott to keep his team in the game as they weather some rough early patches. The technical faults, if any, have been minor. A slight hesitancy here or there, failure to challenge a shooter as much as he could, losing a shooter in traffic, perhaps a failure to anticipate a shot.

If there has been a moderate drop in performance it is hard to assign it to any one cause. Could it be fatigue near the end of a long season with lots of difficult AHL travel, topped off by a Senators road trip that was brutal by NHL standards? Could it be a loss of mental focus now that the initial rush of games is past? Or is it primarily attributable to poor team play in front of him?

If Elliott had to be graded on his NHL performance so far this season, he would earn a solid B. He demonstrated poise and talent, and a few rough edges. How Elliott addresses those areas for improvement will be critical to his next year or two with the Senators. At this point Elliott has demonstrated enough to pencil him in as an NHL backup, with NHL starter upside. Just exactly how high that upside goes is unknown, but the Senators would probably count themselves lucky if they could get proficient, reliable goaltending of a 10th-15th ranked goalie, considering Elliott was drafted 291st out of 292 in the 2003 NHL Entry Draft. Most people agree that Elliott is the most promising goaltending prospect ever drafted by the Ottawa Senators, but on a list that includes Ray Emery and not much else, this isn't much of a flattering consideration. Still, he has excelled at the NCAA and AHL level despite odds against him, and while his starts in both leagues were slow, he graduated both ranks as a star at each level. His NHL development has been on track with educated expectations.

Looking ahead, the Senators have a few decisions to make. Do they keep Elliott up with the NHL club and see how he works through the challenge immediately in front of him, or do they send him back to Binghamton in hopes of a long and successful AHL playoff run?

The Senators also need to sign Elliott to a new contract over the summer. He will be a Restricted Free Agent, without arbitration rights, which means he could be the target of an offer sheet from another team. That gives the Senators an incentive to sign him relatively quickly. Elliott might reasonably expect to sign a one or two year deal in the range of $900,000 to $1.3 million. Based on the scarcity of significant or desirable goalie upgrades this summer, the Senators may decide to start next season with a tandem of Alex Auld and Elliott, a situation that provides an interesting mix of challenge and opportunity for both goaltenders.

The key point is that Elliott's future is entirely in his hands. The Senators would love nothing more than to see him step up and take the reigns of an organization in dire need of a consistent force between the pipes, and will give him every opportunity to succeed. If Elliott shows the determination and commitment to betterment espoused by his play at other levels, he will be a valuable asset to the Ottawa Senators franchise.

Top 20 Senators Prospects (Mid-season Ranking)

2009-02-09T13:08:00.045-05:00

by Sean Keogh (with additional content as noted)
All statistics as of February 9th, 2009.
All height/weight data courtesy of hockeydb.

1. Erik Karlsson

Senators Player Page
Frölunda Indians Player Page
HockeyDB Player Page

Defense - Landsbro, Sweden - 5'11", 165 lbs - DOB 1990
Drafted 1st round, 15th overall 2008

2008-09 Frolunda SEL 37GP 2G 4A 6P 10PIM

Karlsson is the top Senators prospect because he is the only player on this list who is anywhere near a stud. Although consistent success in the Swedish Elite League has eluded him, in the past 9 months Karlsson has been the top defenseman at both the U18s and U20s, which is no small feat. His overall offensive skills are outstanding. Although not a burner, he is a good all-round skater; his passing is perhaps the best in the organization already; and he has a great shot including a promising one-timer. Despite needing more time to mature physically, he could probably quarterback an NHL powerplay very soon, if not now. Lower body strength is a major weakness for now, and he does not have a build that suggests it will ever be an asset, but at almost 6’0” now his height is not a huge drawback. What he lacks in strength he makes up for in outstanding hockey sense, including great timing and body control that allows him to play physical hockey and even throw open ice hits. The only other aspect of Karlsson’s game that needs work is simplification. Whether it’s breaking out of his zone or walking the line on the powerplay, Karlsson needs to find a better balance between creativity and safety. With his hockey sense and natural gifts though, that should come with time so long as he remains coachable and his moxie does not turn into stubbornness.

Other Comments: (Prospect Ranking)

SensGuy: (1) Has the ability to be a tremendous PP QB. I don't know if he'll ever be a top flight overall defenseman, but I'm very happy the Sens went with pure talent on this one. Unlike others, I wouldn't mind seeing him come to North America, even if it's a sheltered role in the NHL, because the biggest thing holding him back is his strength, which won't improve a lot in Sweden. Good comparison might be Brian Campbell.
Zamboner: (1) Top-paring D-man and PP QB - Great vision and poise with the puck. Elite passing and shot. Can take too many risks, and needs to be better when defending. Also needs to bulk up considerably. Will probably spend one more year with Frolunda in the SEL, where he will hopefully get more ice-time. Expect to see Karlsson in Ottawa in 2010-2011, unless they convince him to play in the AHL or he blows us away next training camp.
armani: (1)
Indrew: (1) Projects to be comparable to Ozolinsh in the 90's
Krazy Tea: (1) Has proven he can dominate at the junior level on the world stage, needs to take the next step and prove that he can play with men. Still a couple years away from being able to be a solid contributor at the NHL level IMO, hurrying him to the NHL based on need would be detrimental to his development. Has the ability to be a #2 top pairing offensive contributor and should lock in as second pairing PP offensive stud at worst. Despite his size he eats up a ton of minutes on the PP/PK and even strength.
Theo Huxtable: (1) Karlsson was very impressive at the World Juniors for Sweden, having been selected as the best defenseman in the tournament. Karlsson is a very offensive-minded d-man - very adept at the first pass out of the zone and joining the rush. He has a hard and fairly accurate shot, and runs a power play with ease. Karlsson obviously has to bulk up to be able to graduate to the NHL level - he must also improve his awareness in his own end. Karlsson seemed to get beat to the outside fairly often during the WJC's. I fear that because of the Sens' lack of offensive defensemen, he may be rushed to the NHL next season.
moz: (1) The others have said it all, I will only add that he shows extreme self-assurance and is more than comfortable in the spotlight. He is lucid and eloquent in conversation with the media and shows a mature understanding of the game that belies his age. While he clearly needs physical development to compliment his tremendous skill, there is no question that his high hockey IQ and maturity will play an integral role in fashioning him into a dependable star player and leader not unlike his fellow countryman Daniel Alfredsson.

2. Brian Lee

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Defense - Moorhead, MN - 6'3", 203 lbs - DOB 1987
Drafted 1st round, 9th overall 2005

2008-09 Binghamton Senators AHL 22GP 1G 7A 8P 28PIM
2008-09 Ottawa Senators NHL 27GP 1G 5A 6P 8PIM

Few prospects in Senators history have been as much maligned as Lee. The pale and soft-spoken blueliner has had an up and down career since the club used the 9th overall pick on him in 2005. Inconsistency plagued him at the University of North Dakota, and his early season struggles this year were cause for concern. Of late he is back on track and is hopefully in the NHL to stay. Lee has some things in common with Karlsson, in that he has good hockey sense and some nice offensive abilities. Although nowhere near as flashy or dynamic as Karlsson, Lee has good all-round mobility and moves the puck very effectively. His shot has improved, as has his strength, although he neither looks nor plays like a 6’3” NHL blueliner. There is some disagreement on his ceiling, as it is not as high as Karlsson’s, but he has all the tools to at least be a reliable top four rearguard, and soon.

Other Comments: (Prospect Ranking)

SensGuy: (2) Obviously I'm higher on him than others, but he can be a really good overall defender once he fills out completely. While he may not be great at anything, he's really good at most, and his hockey sense is through the roof. He's still a project, and we won't be seeing a finished product for at least a few more years. A good comparison might be Teppo Numminen, as I have a feeling he'll never get the respect he deserves.
Zamboner: (NR) Deemed to have graduated from prospect rank.
armani: (2)
Indrew: (2) Projects to be comparable to Redden
Krazy Tea: (2) Up and down year hurt his rankings, has showed flashes of brilliance but needs to show it with some consistency. I don't really believe he can be an elite top pairing guy, but again a decent 3/4 stud. He will eat up a ton of minutes, not sure if he can translate his offensive game to the NHL as well. But he is playing a more consistent defensive game since his second call up and there is still room for development at his age.
Theo Huxtable: (2) I think Lee will turn out to be a solid NHL defenseman, but not spectacular. He'll probably max out as a 3/4 d-man at the NHL level. He skates well, is a very good passer, plays the game intelligently, but has two glaring weaknesses - his shot is well below average (perhaps even poor), and he doesn't play a very physical brand of hockey. I think Lee will turn out to be a solid but unspectacular pro.
moz: (2) The mention of Wade Redden leaves a bad taste in the mouths of many Senators fans, and any favourable comparison to him is tainted by Redden's poor final years in Ottawa. But Lee projects as the Redden who provided a decade of solid, well-rounded if not astronomical play. Perhaps another fair comparison would be a slightly more involved Filip Kuba, only with a physical edge. He can quietly play in all situations and shock you when he leads the team in ice time. Lee isn't flashy and has no outstanding attributes, but he will be a perfect compliment to Karlsson. In his brief time in the NHL, he has shown himself capable of shutting down skilled players, while it will take some more physical maturing to contain grinders or power forwards.

3. Brian Elliott

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Goaltender - Newmarket, ON - 6'2", 198 lbs - DOB 1985
Drafted 9th round, 291st overall 2003

2008-09 Binghamton Senators AHL 30GP 18W 2.31GAA 0.926sv% 2SO
2008-09 Ottawa Senators NHL 11GP 5W 2.47GAA 0.912sv%

If Lee’s upside is a bit hard to peg, it would be foolish to concretely do the same for this overachiever. Elliott’s story is already well established, going from the 291st selection in 2003 to goalie of the future in Ottawa, and the more success he has at the NHL level, the closer to folk tale it will become. A big, intelligent and hard-working goaltender with an exemplary mental make-up, Elliott has conquered every challenge he has faced so far, rising to the top of the ranks in both the NCAA and AHL. Although he is not an elite athlete and needs to work on his rebound control and consistency, he has not stopped improving since being drafted, so predicting what kind of NHL career he will have is at present hard to do.

Other Comments: (Prospect Ranking)

SensGuy: (3) Self made, and I see him becoming a real solid #1 goaltender in this league. He made it this far on hard work, and will continue to stick because of that. Big, athletic, and willing to tweak his game to compete at any level. Has the mental game that you crave in a goaltender, and even in his short NHL stint, has shown an ability to make big saves for his team. Comparable to Ryan Miller.
Zamboner: (2) Starting goaltender - Impeccable work ethic and attitude. Is a student of the game, and therefore technically great. Could work on lateral movement and rebounds. With the Sens' lack of anything at the goalie position, he's likely an NHLer from here on out.
armani: (3)
Indrew: (3) Projects to be comparable to fellow U of W alum Mike Richter... maybe
Krazy Tea: (3) Not really sure yet what kind of goaltender he can be at the NHL, if he develops as he has previously through the NCAA and AHL then he could be a quality starter in the NHL.
Theo Huxtable: (3)
moz: (3) The others have said it all. A trifecta of necessities for goaltending excellence - technical and athletic abilities, a high level of competitiveness and a commitment to betterment. He has excelled at every level of competition despite fierce odds and low expectations. While it is unfair to bill him the future of the franchise, the Senators will give him every opportunity to fulfill just that role.

4. Ilya Zubov

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Forward - Chelyabinsk, Russia - 6'0", 201 lbs - DOB 1987
Drafted 4th round, 98th overall 2005

2008-09 Binghamton Senators AHL 36GP 12G 25A 37P 18PIM
2008-09 Ottawa Senators NHL 10GP 0G 2A 2P 0PIM

Few organizations would say that a former fourth round pick is not only their best forward prospect but in terms of upside arguably the best to come along in half a decade. Zubov is however a legitimate scoring line prospect on a team that has failed to produce one in too long. The Russian’s second AHL season has been his breakout, resulting in multiple call-ups to Ottawa. An all-round offensive winger with good skating ability, it is improved off-ice dedication and on-ice all-round play that has cemented his status as a key prospect for Ottawa.

Other Comments: (Prospect Ranking)

SensGuy: (4) Perhaps the most talented forward prospect the Senators have had in years. Needs to be more assertive next time he comes up to the NHL, but has the talent and looks committed to staying in North America. Another off-season in Ottawa and he should get a good look next year, if not later this season. A good comparison might be Slava Kozlov.
Zamboner: (3) Top 6 forward - Great offensive awareness, stick-handling, and skating. Plays well defensively, and doesn't shy away from contact. Could probably further improve his conditioning, and be more assertive. Will likely be pushing for a full-time spot on the big club in 2009-2010.
armani: (5)
Indrew: (6) Projects to be comparable to Dvorak
Krazy Tea: (5) Putting up good numbers in the AHL after an off-season dedicated to conditioning. Has not carried his play into Ottawa yet could work on the defensive aspects of the game. Hopefully Clouston can get this Russian to bring it at the NHL level and round out his game. Top 6 all offense.
Theo Huxtable: (6) I think Zubov will either become a 2nd line offensive forward at the NHL level, or not make it to the NHL on a regular basis. Zubov has good speed, good offensive instincts, but lacks size. His AHL numbers are impressive this season - over a point-per-game pace - however, I wasn't overly impressed with his play for the Sens this season. He certainly didn't produce much at the NHL level (2 assists in 10 games), and he looked out of place at times in the defensive zone, unsure of what his assignment was. That being said, if he continues to work hard at the AHL level, hopefully he will be able to become a top 6 forward - the type of player the Sens need desperately to add to their NHL lineup.
moz: (5) He is progressing well and making significant improvements every year. He is a skilled player who can have an impact as a secondary player in the league. While his NHL future is not assured, if he continues along his current path he has a good chance. As others have noted he looked a little tentative in his time in Ottawa, but his skill and hockey sense were apparent on the rush and with a cycle. He doesn't of yet have the defensive ability or imposing physical style to have much of an impact outside the second line, so his offense will need to carry through at the NHL level or he may not find a role.

5. Peter Regin

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Forward - Herning, Denmark - 6'2", 198 lbs - DOB 1986
Drafted 3rd round, 87th overall 2004

2008-09 Binghamton Senators AHL 36GP 9G 14A 23P 26PIM
2008-09 Ottawa Senators NHL 6GP 1G 0A 1P 0PIM

The Senators have taken players from several unconventional hockey backgrounds. Although Regin was born and raised in Denmark, it was his three years with Timra IK in the Swedish Elite League that made him the prospect he is today. When he was drafted out of Denmark, Regin was so raw he was still using a stick so short it only went up to his belly button. His hockey sense and offensive skills were always there, but the rest of his game has really developed well. His skating is much better, he plays a mature and aware game in all three zones, and he is a potential second line center who has the utility and maturity to stick as a third liner otherwise.

Other Comments: (Prospect Ranking)

SensGuy: (5) His intelligence stands out. He's solid offensively, but tremendous defensively for someone in their first year in North America. Once he bulks up, could become a decent 2nd line player, but great 3rd line guy. A more talented Chris Kelly seems like a decent comparison.
Zamboner: (4) Top 6 forward - Great awareness in both zones, and elite skating and stickhandling. Like Zubov, he plays in traffic. More of a playmaker than sniper. His height and lankiness give him room to bulk up considerably. Will likely be in the NHL full-time before the end of this year.
armani: (4)
Indrew: (4) Projects to be comparable to Ylonen
Krazy Tea: (4) Has looked like the best call-up from Bingo this year, playing a solid game in Bingo led the team in +/-. Excellent prospect at either end of the ice, plenty of dangles, great stick skills. Has translated his game to the NHL quite well, amazing back checker. Looks like a third liner with some offense maybe a top 6 guy with the right combinations.
Theo Huxtable: (5) I ranked Regin ahead of Zubov because I liked what I saw from Regin at the NHL level - he appears to be a more complete player then Zubov. Regin showed very well in his six games in the NHL - he is clearly a very smart player with an above average hockey IQ. Regin showed that he is not afraid to go into the corners and the dirty zones on the ice - he is clever with the puck along the boards and makes very good passes. I think Regin could improve his skating a bit, but looks to be a surefire NHL 3rd liner going forward.
moz: (4) He has rocketed up my rankings since seeing him in the NHL. He is incredibly poised, and patient. He seems to read the ice extremely well which makes him valuable at both ends of the ice. He has great skill but it is his anticipation and playmaking which make him so valuable - I too would rank him ahead of Zubov at this point. It seems the time in the SEL has done him a world of good, he plays like a player 5 years more experienced. A top-6 NHL future is absolutely within his grasp, perhaps as early as next year. I don't know that his point ceiling is especially high but I have a feeling he will contribute every night in some manner.

6. Patrick Wiercioch

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Defense - Burnaby, BC - 6'3", 178 lbs - DOB 1990
Drafted 2nd round, 42nd overall 2008

2008-09 University of Denver NCAA 25GP 10G 13A 23P 18PIM

If the old adage that the year after being drafted is the most important in a prospect’s development is true in the least, this 2008 second rounder could not be progressing better. At this time a year ago Wiercioch was 6’2” and playing average hockey in the USHL. Now he is almost 6’5” and perhaps the top freshman in the NCAA, producing at a rate very rarely seen by an 18 year old blueliner. Offensively gifted and still very raw, Wiercioch has impressive offensive awareness and instincts. With another year or two at the University of Denver, he should be able to grow into his body and in turn improve his strength, skating and physical play.

Other Comments: (Prospect Ranking)

SensGuy: (6) What he's doing is pretty amazing, but he's still pretty raw. Great offensive instincts, and the body and reach to be great defensively as well. While his potential is tough to pin down, the sky appears to be the limit for him.
Zamboner: (5) Top 4 D-man - Great outlet pass and knows how to advance a play and run the PP. Great shot and decent skating. Not bad defensively, which is a huge plus for an offensive D-man. Still growing, and will need to put a lot of weight on his frame. This could affect his skating, so he should probably continue working on it. Wiercioch will play at least one more year with DU, and will look to make the Canadian WJC squad in December 2009.
armani: (6)
Indrew: (5) Projects to be comparable to Mara, before the offense was lost
Krazy Tea: (6) Putting up huge numbers at Denver thus far, have to be careful and not get too excited though. Matt Carle put up similar if not better numbers during his stay at Denver. He has not panned out just yet in the NHL being trade bait more often then not, and is now playing in Philadelphia. That said Wiercioch has apparently shown a ton of talent, I won't talk about a prospect I haven't seen though. I'll leave his evaluation to SensGuy, but he should be a PP QB in Ottawa within 3-4 years.
Theo Huxtable: (4) I seem to be a bit higher on Wiercioch then some other contributors - for an 18 year-old freshman d-man to be producing at such a high rate in the NCAA, it would appear his ceiling is quite high and deserves a top 5 ranking at this time.

7. Jim O’Brien

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Forward - Maplewood, MN - 6'2", 200 lbs - DOB 1989
Drafted 1st round, 29th overall 2007

2008-09 Seattle Thunderbirds WHL 47GP 18G 26A 44P 39PIM

O’Brien is reminiscent of current Senators Antoine Vermette and Mike Fisher in that he is less than the sum of his parts. O’Brien has great size, strength and skating ability, but lacks the offensive awareness and creativity to project as a scoring line player. There is little reason to doubt he will play at the NHL level, but his upside appears lower than the players above him. He might be better served as a power winger considering his limitations.

Other Comments: (Prospect Ranking)

SensGuy: (7) When he heads to Bingo next year, we'll get a better read on his offensive skills, but it doesn't look that great right now. Could be another Mike Fisher, which is hardly a bad thing, but with the Sens lack of talented forwards, would be lovely if he developed more of an offensive game.
Zamboner: (6) Great 3rd line winger - Big body that skates effortlessly. A decent passer that works his heart out every shift. He doesn't appear to have the offensive IQ the club hoped he'd develop, and this will likely limit him to the 3rd line. O'Brien will join Bingo next year, and may even push for a spot on the big club.
armani: (7)
Indrew: (7) Projects to be comparable to Fisher
Krazy Tea: (7) Was very hopeful for this prospect after he was drafted but hasn't shown very much to be excited about since. Doesn't seem like a huge offensive contributor, great shutdown guy. Once he gets to the AHL it will be easier to see what kind of player he really is. 3rd line checking forward.
Theo Huxtable: (7)
moz: (6) Definitely projects as a safe third line forward who might be able to chip in a bit of offense. While he has shown some decent offensive production in Seattle, I think his play in Minnesota is more reflective of what he could realistically contribute to an NHL franchise. Probably not worthy of his draft position, but his size, skating ability and work ethic should make him a decent contributor.

8. Zack Smith

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Forward - Medicine Hat, AB - 6'2", 202 lbs - DOB 1988
Drafted 3rd round, 79th overall 2008

2008-09 Binghamton Senators AHL 50GP 13G 17A 30P 83PIM
2008-09 Ottawa Senators NCAA 1GP 0G 0A 0P 0PIM

A classic late bloomer, Smith was passed over twice and now looks like a steal from last year’s third round. A late growth spurt and hard work largely account for the fact he now looks like a future NHL third liner instead of an overage WHLer and CIS-bound player. Although he likely lacks the skating and pure skill to be a scoring line player, Smith is a tough and gritty player with the nose for the net, who like O’Brien also might be better served on the wing.

Other Comments: (Prospect Ranking)

SensGuy: (9) Seemed to benefit from playing in Binghamton with two highly skilled guys in Zubov and Shannon, but that's not a bad thing. Perhaps that shows he can be a good complementary guy on a skilled line. Probably needs more time in the AHL to fill out and refine his game.
Zamboner: (10) Great character and work ethic. He combines physical play with a scoring touch. His skating could also use some work.
armani: (10)
Indrew: (10) Projects to be comparable to Moss
Krazy Tea: (9) Playing pretty well in Bingo, will hopefully end with a 70 point season. Big character kid although it routinely seems he gets his ass kicked by the enforcers in the AHL, probably will change as he gets a little bigger. It seems he has this odd fighting style (at least to me) where he kind of dodges the punches for awhile, its pretty strange anyways. Plays hard every day and hopefully that will get him into Ottawa as a 3rd/4th line checker with the ability to score.
Theo Huxtable: (9) Smith is a good player with good size, decent hands and a nose for the net. Will stand up for his teammates and drop the gloves when needed. He really needs to work on his skating. From what I've seen, Smith will max out as a 3rd line two-way forward at the NHL level and play a physical style of game.
moz: (8) Echoing the others, he seems like a hard worker who has a good combination of abilities, offensive, defensive and physical. While I doubt his offensive knack will translate too much to the NHL, it is reassuring that he at least prospers when playing with skilled players, as opposed to other grinders who can look lost or a step behind. He can play on any of the bottom three lines and seems a pretty versatile young player. An NHL future is entirely within reach if he keeps up the work.

9. Mattias Karlsson

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Defense - Orebro, Sweden - 6'2", 220 lbs - DOB 1985
Drafted 4th round, 135th overall, 2003

2008-09 Binghamton Senators AHL 45GP 4G 25A 29P 28PIM

After being all but written off because of his inability to find a regular job in the Swedish Elite League for so long, Karlsson has broken out in a big way at the AHL this year. An all-star as a rookie, Karlsson is intriguing for his package of great size and legitimate offensive abilities. A lack of skating ability and overall decision-making could use work though, but he is no longer a forgotten prospect.

Other Comments: (Prospect Ranking)

SensGuy: (10) For a big guy, he could stand to be a lot more physical, but that's not his game. Smooth offensively, and solid defensively. It appears his skating will be what holds him back.
Zamboner: (8) 5-6 D-man - Smart player in both zones. Is not the best skater, but has exceptional positioning and marking in his own end and advances the play with great passes. Is a big, big guy. The anti-Schubert may be able to steal the Schubert/Bell spot next year.
armani: (8)
Indrew: (8) Projects to be comparable to Kalinin
Krazy Tea: (11) Playing well in Bingo, can he bring his skating level up and play in the NHL? I don't think so.
Theo Huxtable: (10)
moz: (10) He's flown under the radar for quite a few years, but has arisen with a vengeance this season, taking advantage of the holes left in Binghamton's blueline with the recall of Bell and Lee. I think he could play on the Senators blueline this season and not cost them. The skating issue is a concern since the Senators defense might be the slowest, ploddingest blueline in the league, but if he can make up for it in other areas he might have an NHL future yet. It is important to remember that he is still young at 23 and plenty of improvement is possible.

10. Louie Caporusso

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Forward - Toronto, ON - 5'10", 185 lbs - DOB 1989
Drafted 3rd round, 90th overall 2007

2008-09 University of Michigan NCAA 30GP 22G 11A 33P 24PIM

Caporusso is the best of a group of mid-round offensive prospects in the club’s prospect pool. As a sophomore at the University of Michigan, he has been maybe the best goal scorer in all of the NCAA this year. Somewhat undersized and an underwhelming skater for a player his size, Caporusso has drawn comparisons to Mike Comrie, Mike Cammalleri and Nigel Dawes for being a small player who scores without being a speedy. Hard work on strength and power skating is a must for any player in this mold.

Other Comments: (Prospect Ranking)

SensGuy: (8) Pure goal scorer. I'm not sure he'll make it at the NHL level, but there's certainly hope for him. If anything will hold him back, it will be his skating.
Zamboner: (7) Top 6 winger or BUST - Excellent offensive IQ, shot, and hands. A fiesty and pesky forechecker, who is way too small to carry over this trait to the big leagues. His offensive skill (20 goals in 28 games as a sophomore at UM) will either carry him in the NHL, or he'll bust.
armani: (9)
Indrew: (9) Projects to be comparable to Bochenski
Krazy Tea: (8) Another great Italian kid to play in Michigan, his last name translates as Russian Captain, I'm pretty sure he's involved with the mob so I won't say anything terrible about him. Not sure he can keep scoring goals at the professional level like he has in the NCAA but certainly there is room for optimism. Have to agree, top 6 or bust here.
Theo Huxtable: (8)

11. Tomas Kudelka

HockeyDB Player Page

Defense - Zlin, Czech Republic - 6'1", 176 lbs - DOB 1987
Drafted 5th round, 136th overall 2005

2008-09 Binghamton Senators AHL 49GP 6G 14A 20P 43PIM

Kudelka was a faller in the 2005 draft, dropping from a projected second round selection to the fifth round. He played well for two years in the WHL and has taken a step forward this season in Binghamton. Another step forward next year is vital.

Other Comments: (Prospect Ranking)

SensGuy: (14) Much better this year than last. Hopefully he can continue the upward swing, but doubt he makes it to the NHL. Has really benefitted from Brendan Bell and Brian Lee staying in Ottawa most of the year.
Zamboner: (13)
armani: (13)
Indrew: (12)
Krazy Tea: (13) Having a better year don't know a lot about him though, don't see him taking it to the next level at this rate.
Theo Huxtable: (18)
moz: (13) Last year was a horrible year for him, but he seems back on track. He is not remarkable in anyway but might just drift into a bottom-pairing position on an NHL team in two or three years time, I don't believe that it will be with Ottawa.

12. Andre Petersson

HockeyDB Player Page

Forward - Olofstrom, Sweden - 5'9", 169 lbs - DOB 1990
Drafted 4th round, 109th overall 2008

2008-09 HV71 Jrs. J20 24GP 15G 20A 35P 26PIM
2008-09 HV71 SEL 8GP 0G 0A 0P 0PIM

Petersson needs three or four years on the Peter Regin development trajectory. Talented but flawed, most of all Petersson will need to upgrade his skating, particularly his balance, which would be best achieved with regular time in the Swedish Elite League.

Other Comments: (Prospect Ranking)

SensGuy: (11) It'll be interesting to see how he adjusts to playing in the upper league in Sweden. Certainly some skill there, but that's not the reason why he fell in the draft.
Zamboner: (9) Top 6 forward or BUST - The Swedish Louie Caporusso. Great offensive instincts, hands, and shot. For his small size, he should be a much better skater. May get a full-time spot in the SEL next year. Needs to work on strength and speed.
armani: (12)
Indrew: (14)
Krazy Tea: (10) Offensive winger, ton of potential, knocks are that he doesn't play hard every day. Dominated at junior will have to see how he plays against men, so far just one point in 10 games. It's kind of hard to picture him taking the next step to the NHL but he has the skill to get here if can maintain his commitment levels to the game.
Theo Huxtable: (11)
moz: (12) Absolutely impressive offensively in the World Juniors, however the knocks against him are numerous and justified. His small size is the biggest concern, though not a roadblock if he wants it bad enough. I don't know that he'll ever make it to the NHL, due to factors independent of his skill, but the first step is being competitive in the SEL, something he has yet to do.

13. Cody Bass

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Forward - Owen Sound, ON - 6'1", 213 lbs - DOB 1987
Drafted 4th round, 95th overall 2005

2008-09 Binghamton Senators AHL 18GP 1G 1A 2P 41PIM
2008-09 Ottawa Senators NHL 12GP 0G 0A 0P 15PIM

Bass is a unique prospect, in that there is near-consensus that he will be an NHL player, but also that he lacks the scoring ability to even be a true third liner. Injuries are now a concern as well.

Other Comments: (Prospect Ranking)

SensGuy: (12) I don't think he'll be anything more than 4th liner, but a sure-fire NHL'er. Worried about these injury issues.
Zamboner: (12)
armani: (15)
Indrew: (21+) I think Cody Bass is too injury-prone to make it, sadly.
Krazy Tea: (12) Injury prone but can be a menacing player to play against when healthy. 3/4 liner.
Theo Huxtable: (12)
moz: (9) I definitely feel that Cody Bass can be a permanent NHL from this point onward, whether it's with Ottawa or elsewhere. He will rise above a 4th/borderline 3rd role, but he can provide some sandpaper and energy that every team needs. He will never be an offensive contributor. As others mentioned, injuries are a concern, and may lead to him being superceded in the depth chart. I have him ranked much higher than others, but only because he is clearly destined to have a respectable NHL career. "Top 6 or bust" prospects who lean more toward the bust rank lower.

14. Kaspars Daugavins

HockeyDB Player Page

Forward - Riga, Latvia - 5'11", 181 lbs - DOB 1988
Drafted 3rd round, 91st overall 2006

2008-09 Binghamton Senators AHL 23GP 2G 1A 3P 9PIM
2008-09 St. Michael's Majors OHL 18GP 3G 9A 12P 18PIM

Where other prospects have broken out this year, Daugavins took a step back. The talent remains there but better commitment and conditioning are necessary. The Latvian also needs to figure out what kind of prospect he wants to be, a role player and sparkplug or a scorer, and adjust accordingly.

Other Comments: (Prospect Ranking)

SensGuy: (13) 4th best prospect my ass. Put him here because he's probably more talented than the rest.
Zamboner: (14)
armani: (11)
Indrew: (13)
Krazy Tea: (13) Significantly regressed this year, going back to the OHL was not really at good thing at Daugavins' age. Barring any miracles I would essentially say that his chance at the NHL is over.
Theo Huxtable: (20)
moz: (15) The opening write-up puts it best: there are serious questions about commitment and conditioning. While I had hope in his leadership from his accomplishments with a poor team in St. Michaels and as a youngster with Latvia, he seems unable to stand out amongst more talented teammates. He's at a sink or swim juncture in his career and while there is hope he can put it together, he quickly is being surpassed by other prospects.

15. Colin Greening

HockeyDB Player Page

Forward - St. John's, NF - 6'2", 210 lbs - DOB 1986
Drafted 7th round, 206th overall 2005

2008-09 Cornell University NCAA 23GP 7G 12A 19P 8PIM

In this day and age, being drafted out of Upper Canada College as Greening was is even less common than from Denmark. Greening has developed nicely, and now is a legitimate prospect. He will be 23 next month and with his size and strength can play AHL hockey now, but returning for a senior year would not be a waste either.

Other Comments: (Prospect Ranking)

SensGuy: (15) I think he may have more NHL potential than most, as I appear to have him higher than most everyone else. He's huge, is a leader on his team, and can score goals. Hope he gets to Bingo in the near future.
Zamboner: (18)
armani: (21+)
Indrew: (18)
Krazy Tea: (17)
Theo Huxtable: (14)

16. Derek Grant

HockeyDB Player Page

Forward - Abbotsford, BC - 6'3", 190 lbs - DOB 1990
Drafted 4th round, 119th overall 2008

2008-09 Langley Chiefs BCHL 31GP 24G 31A 55P 22PIM

Grant is likely the furthest away from the NHL of any player on this list. He has yet to play above Junior A, and has nothing left to prove there. Just how good a scorer, or prospect in general, he is remains an unanswerable question at this point.

Other Comments: (Prospect Ranking)

SensGuy: (20) I guess we'll see what he can do in College, but he's dominating the BCHL like he should be.
Zamboner: (11)
armani: (16)
Indrew: (11)
Krazy Tea: (15) Did pretty decent in the BCHL until his recent injury, seems to be a little injury prone to me. Proved to be a better prospect than I thought but it will be good to see how his game carries over into the NCAA. Not holding my breath on this one but there is some hope that he can be a decent prospect.
Theo Huxtable: (13)
moz: (14) As SensGuy points out, Grant's dominance of the BCHL is more of an expectation than an achievement - check out the statistics of previous talented players to roll through that league like Kyle Turris or Travis Zajac. His offensive prowess against relatively weak competition is evident, but real questions will be answered if he can translate his offensive game against college or professional opponents. Most important will be whether he can add the defensive and physical elements to his game which will make an NHL career possible.

17. Erik Condra

HockeyDB Player Page

Forward - Trenton, MI - 6'0", 202 lbs - DOB 1986
Drafted 7th round, 211th overall 2006

2008-09 Notre Dame NCAA 29GP 8G 16A 24P 30PIM

Nobody doubts Condra’s intelligence or character. He is one of the most respected captains in the NCAA, and is a pre-med student to boot. An ACL injury last year is likely to blame for a disappointing senior year, but he has role player upside.

Other Comments: (Prospect Ranking)

SensGuy: (16) His all around game is real good. Shouldn't have much issues adjusting to the AHL, but don't see a whole lot beyond that.
Zamboner: (16)
armani: (17)
Indrew: (16)
Krazy Tea: (14) Put up decent numbers in the NCAA, could be a solid AHL player, don't see him in the NHL.
Theo Huxtable: (15)

18. Emil Sandin

HockeyDB Player Page

Forward - Upsaala, Sweden - 5'10", 178 lbs - DOB 1988
Drafted 7th round, 199th overall 2008

2008-09 Brynas IF Gavle SEL 45GP 5G 9A 14P 6PIM

Sandin is kind of a throwback pick to the days when the Senators plucked overagers like Daniel Alfredsson, Andreas Dackell and Magnus Arvedson out of Sweden. He has played well this year in the Swedish Elite League and his style projects well to the NHL game.

Other Comments: (Prospect Ranking)

SensGuy: (21+)
Zamboner: (17)
armani: (18)
Indrew: (17)
Krazy Tea: (16) Able to play decent hockey with Brynas IF in Sweden, putting up some decent numbers. Anders Forsberg, the Senators Swedish Amateur Scout thinks he needs one more year before he can play in the NHL. He is a decent set up man, won most points and assists in the north division in the J20 as well as the highest +/-.
Theo Huxtable: (19)
moz: (19) Don't expect to see Sandin ever make the transition to the NHL. He appears to have decent skills but lacks size and strength - hopefully he'll enjoy a healthy career in the SEL, but don't expect much more out of this overager.

19. Shawn Weller

HockeyDB Player Page

Forward - Glen Falls, NY - 6'2", 205 lbs - DOB 1986
Drafted 3rd round, 77th overall 2004

2008-09 Binghamton Senators AHL 44GP 2G 5A 7P 24PIM
2008-09 Elmira Jackals ECHL 4GP 1G 1A 2P 2PIM

This has been a disappointing year for Weller. He has all the tools to be a good third liner, good size, physical enthusiasm, strong skating ability and some offensive potential, but the window of opportunity will slam shut if he does not get his game together soon.

Other Comments: (Prospect Ranking)

SensGuy: (18) Seems to have taken a step back, which is unfortunate.
Zamboner: (21+)
armani: (19)
Indrew: (21+)
Krazy Tea: (19)
Theo Huxtable: (21+)

20. Ruslan Bashkirov

HockeyDB Player Page

Forward - Moscow, Russia - 5'11", 186 lbs - DOB 1989
Drafted 2nd round, 60th overall 2007

2008-09 Tolyatti Lada KHL 2GP 0G 0A 0P 2PIM
(statistics incomplete)

Where in the world is Ruslan Bashkirov? The answer is not where he should be. Literally, that means not in the CHL, and abstractly that means not developing. To write off a second round pick 20 months later feels a bit odd though, so he gets the final spot on this list for no reason other than that.

Other Comments: (Prospect Ranking)

SensGuy: (21+)
Zamboner: (21+)
armani: (20)
Indrew: (21+)
Krazy Tea: (20)
Theo Huxtable: (21+)
moz: (16) Bashkirov will likely never see NHL time due to poor career choices, not lack of skill or ability. He is a gifted scorer who drives to the net with surprising abandon and showed consistent effort even when a game is out of reach. Unfortunately, his commitment to his twin brother appears to outweigh his commitment to a North American hockey career. While he is not entirely a lost cause, evidenced by his appearance at the most recent Senators development cause, playing in a third tier Russian league is of no help to him nor the Senators. He could be a recovered prospect someday, but don't bank on it.

Honourable Mentions:

Ben Blood
SensGuy: (17) Not even playing at UND most nights.
Zamboner: (15)
Indrew: (15)

Vitaly Anikeyenko
Theo Huxtable: (16)

Kirill Lyamin
Theo Huxtable: (17)

Eric Gryba
SensGuy: (19) - Haven't seen him once, just put him here.
Zamboner: (19)
Indrew: (19)

Scouting Report: Patrick Wiercioch

2009-02-01T22:57:00.006-05:00

Ottawa's 2nd round pick in the 2008 draft, Patrick Wiercioch, was originally scheduled to play another year in the USHL, where he was coming off a dominant showing in the USHL playoffs for the Omaha Lancers. He had verbally committed to the University of Wisconsin to begin playing in the fall of 2009, but with the unfortunate ending to David Carle's hockey career due to medical issues, he was able to jump on an opportunity to play at Denver University. Thus far, he's taken full advantage of it.

When Wiercioch was drafted, he was listed at 6'2", but over the summer added a couple of inches and is now listed at 6'4", and looks every bit of it. At only 185 pounds, it could be several years before he actually fills out. At the moment, he looks like a player who still doesn't know how to handle this growth spurt. For someone so big, his physical game is almost non-existent. This is something that could certainly develop over the years, once he learns how to play with this body.

Wiercioch's skating may be one of his weaknesses. Even before the draft his skating was criticized, and it doesn't look like this growth spurt has helped him a whole lot. He's got a long stride, but it's not very powerful. For a man his size, his skating could be considered average, but there is room for improvement and as long as he continues to get stronger, his skating should improve.

You only have to watch Wiercioch once to recognize how well he thinks the game in the offensive zone. As a teenager, he's running their first power play unit, and is excelling while doing so. The one thing you notice with Wiercioch on the power play is that he's never static. He's always moving around, which is a key to why he's been so successful. He's willing to roam all over the ice if he has to, something that perhaps the Ottawa Senators could use on their PP right now. His overall hockey IQ and offensive ability have been the biggest reasons why he's had no issues playing at the NCAA level.

At the same time, while he's a roamer in the offensive zone, he also has a tendency to roam in his own end. He plays in all situations, and has had no problem adjusting to them, but you will often notice him trying to leave the zone a bit early trying to lead an offensive rush. At this stage, it's nothing to worry about, as good coaching can certainly fix this (and DU has good coaching). And, as mentioned earlier, an improved physical game would add an entirely different dimension to his game. His added size really helps him on the PK, where his long reach makes him very effective.

Overall, his adjustment to the college level has been a tremendous surprise. While Ottawa GM Bryan Murray recently said he may be closer to the NHL level than 1st round pick Erik Karlsson, it looks as though a few more years at the college level would be very beneficial for him, so he can continue to develop his all-around game and gain strength. As long as he continues developing, he should have a good chance to make Team Canada in next years World Junior Championships, which would be great for someone like Wiercioch, who wasn't even on Team Canada's radar earlier this year.

DU will be televised on the NHL Network on February 6th (US Only) and February 20th (US and Canada) so Sens fans will have the chance to watch him on TV in the near future.

Test

2009-01-30T16:46:00.003-05:00

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